Summary: Making managerial decisions in the organization. Problems and their solution: economic and mathematical model

Management decision- this is the choice that the manager must make in order to fulfill the duties due to his position (the choice of an alternative made by the manager within the framework of his official powers and competence and aimed at achieving the goals of the organization). Decision making is the basis of management. Responsibility for making important management decisions is a heavy moral burden, which is especially pronounced at the highest levels of management.

Solution is the choice of an alternative. Every day we make hundreds of decisions without even thinking about how we do it. The fact is that the price of such decisions, as a rule, is low, and this price is determined by the subject himself, who made them. Of course, there are a number of problems related to relationships between people, health, family budget, the unsuccessful solution of which can lead to far-reaching consequences, but this is the exception rather than the rule.
However, in management, decision making is a more systematized process than in private life.

The main differences between managerial decisions and decisions in private life.

1. Goals. The subject of management (be it an individual or a group) makes a decision based not on their own needs, but in order to solve the problems of a particular organization.

2. Consequences. The private choice of an individual affects his own life and may affect the few people close to him.

A manager, especially a high-ranking one, chooses the course of action not only for himself, but also for the organization as a whole and its employees, and his decisions can significantly affect the lives of many people. If the organization is large and influential, the decisions of its leaders can seriously affect the socio-economic situation of entire regions. For example, the decision to close a company's unprofitable facility can significantly increase unemployment.

3. Division of labor. If in private life a person, when making a decision, as a rule, fulfills it himself, then in an organization there is a certain division of labor: some employees (managers) are busy solving emerging problems and making decisions, while others (executors) are busy implementing decisions already made.

4. Professionalism. In private life, each person independently makes decisions by virtue of his intellect and experience. In managing an organization, decision-making is a much more complex, responsible and formalized process that requires professional training. Not every employee of the organization, but only those with certain professional knowledge and skills, is empowered to make certain decisions independently.

Decision making is preceded by several steps:

problems that need to be addressed;

1. development and formulation of alternatives;

choosing the optimal alternative from their sets;

approval (adoption) of the decision;

organization of work on the implementation of the solution - feedback

Classification of management decisions

Depending on the basis underlying the decision, there are:

• intuitive solutions;
• decisions based on judgments;
• rational decisions.

Intuitive solutions. A purely intuitive decision is a choice made only on the basis of a feeling that it is correct. The decision maker does not consciously weigh the pros and cons of each alternative and does not even need to understand the situation. It's just that a person makes a choice. What we call insight or "sixth sense" are intuitive solutions. Management specialist Peter Schoederbeck points out that “While increased information about a problem can be of great help to decision-making by middle managers, those at the highest echelons of power still have to rely on intuitive judgments. Moreover, computers allow management to pay more attention to data, but do not cancel time-honored managerial intuitive know-how.

Decisions based on judgments. Such decisions sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. A judgmental decision is a choice based on knowledge or experience. A person uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations before to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. However, common sense is rare among people, so this method of decision-making is also not very reliable, although it captivates with its speed and cheapness.

When, for example, you make a choice whether to study a management program or an accounting program, you are likely to make a decision based on judgment based on your experience with introductory courses in each subject.

Judgment as the basis of management decision is useful because many situations in organizations tend to be conquered frequently. In this case, the previously adopted solution can work again no worse than before, which is the main advantage of programmed solutions.

Another weakness is that the judgment cannot be related to a situation that has not taken place before, and therefore there is simply no experience of solving it. In addition, with this approach, the leader seeks to act mainly in those areas that are familiar to him, as a result of which he risks missing a good result in another area, consciously or unconsciously refusing to invade it.

Rational Decisions are based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the personal characteristics of the manager making the decision, it is customary to distinguish between:

• balanced decisions;
• And impulsive decisions;
• inert solutions;
• risky decisions;
• careful decisions.

Balanced Decisions are accepted by managers who are attentive and critical of their actions, put forward hypotheses and their testing. Usually, before starting to make a decision, they have formulated the initial idea.

impulsive decisions, the authors of which easily generate a wide variety of ideas in unlimited quantities, but are not able to properly verify, clarify, and evaluate them. Decisions therefore turn out to be insufficiently substantiated and reliable;

Inert solutions are the result of a careful search. In them, on the contrary, control and clarifying actions prevail over the generation of ideas, so it is difficult to detect originality, brilliance, and innovation in such decisions.

risky decisions differ from impulsive ones in that their authors do not need a thorough substantiation of their hypotheses and, if they are confident in themselves, they may not be afraid of any dangers.

Cautious Decisions are characterized by the thoroughness of the manager's assessment of all options, a supercritical approach to business. They are even less than inert ones, they are distinguished by novelty and originality.

The types of decisions that depend on the personal characteristics of the manager are typical mainly in the process of operational personnel management.

For strategic and tactical management in any subsystem of the management system, rational decisions are made based on the methods of economic analysis, justification and optimization.

Depending on the degree of preliminary formalization, there are:

• programmed solutions;
• unprogrammed solutions.

Programmed decision is the result of the implementation of a certain sequence of steps or actions. As a rule, the number of possible alternatives is limited and the choice must be made within the directions given by the organization.

For example, the head of the purchasing department of a production association, when drawing up a schedule for the purchase of raw materials and materials, may proceed from a formula that requires a certain ratio between the planned volume of production and the raw materials and materials for the production of a unit finished products. If the budget stipulates that the production of a unit of output is spent2 kg of raw materials, then the decision is made automatically - the planned production volume is 1000 pieces, therefore it is necessary to purchase 2,000 kg of raw materials.

Similarly, if the finance director is required to invest excess cash in certificates of deposit, municipal bonds, or common stock, whichever provides the greatest return on investment at the time, the choice is determined by the results of a simple calculation for each option and by establishing the most advantageous.

Programming can be considered an important auxiliary tool in making effective management decisions. By determining what the solution should be, management reduces the chance of error. This also saves time, because subordinates do not have to develop a new correct procedure every time the appropriate situation arises.

Not surprisingly, management often programs solutions for situations that recur with a certain regularity.

It is very important for the manager to have confidence that the decision-making procedure is, in fact, correct and desirable. Obviously, if the programmed procedure becomes wrong and undesirable, the decisions made with it will be ineffective, and the management will lose the respect of their employees and those people outside the organization who are affected by the decisions made. Moreover, it is highly desirable to communicate the justifications for programmed decision-making methodology to those who use this methodology, rather than just offer it for use. Failure to answer "why" questions in connection with a decision-making procedure often creates tension and resentment for the people who must apply the procedure. Efficient information exchange increases the efficiency of decision making.

unprogrammed solutions. Decisions of this type are required in situations that are somewhat new, not internally structured, or involve unknown factors. Since it is impossible to draw up a specific sequence of necessary steps in advance, the manager must develop a decision-making procedure. Among the non-programmed solutions are the following types:

• what should be the goals of the organization;
• how to improve products;
• how to improve the structure of the management unit;
• how to increase the motivation of subordinates.

In each of these situations (as most often happens with unprogrammed solutions), any of the factors can be the true cause of the problem. At the same time, the manager has many options to choose from.

In practice, few management decisions are programmed or unprogrammed in their pure form.

Most likely, they are extreme mappings of a certain spectrum in the case of both everyday and fundamental decisions. Almost all solutions fall somewhere in between the extremes.

Decision requirements

• the minimum number of adjustments;
• balance of rights and obligations of the manager making the decision - responsibility should be equal to his powers;
• unity of management - the decision (or order) must come from the immediate supervisor. In practice, this means that a superior manager should not give orders "over the head" of a subordinate manager;
• strict responsibility - management decisions should not contradict each other;
• validity - a managerial decision should be made on the basis of reliable information about the state of the object, taking into account the trends in its development;
• concreteness;
• authority - a managerial decision must be made by a body or person having the right to make it;
• timeliness - the managerial decision must be timely, because the delay in the decision sharply reduces the effectiveness of management.

Conditions for a quality solution

• application to the development of management solutions of scientific approaches of management;
• study of the influence of economic laws on the effectiveness of management decisions;
• providing the decision maker with qualitative information characterizing the parameters of the "output", "input", "external environment" and "process" of the solution development system;
• application of methods of functional cost analysis, forecasting, modeling and economic justification of each decision;
• structuring the problem and building a tree of goals;
• ensuring comparability (comparability) solutions;
• providing multivariate solutions;
• legal validity of the decision;
• automation of the process of collecting and processing information, the process of developing and implementing solutions;
• development and functioning of a system of responsibility and motivation for a high-quality and effective solution;
• the presence of a mechanism for implementing the solution.

A solution is considered effective if:

1. It comes from real goals.

2. For its implementation, there is the necessary time and the necessary resources.

3. It can be carried out in the specific conditions of the organization.

4. Non-standard, emergency situations are provided.

5. It does not provoke conflict situations and stress.

6. Changes in the business and background environment are foreseen.

7. It makes it possible to exercise control over execution.

One of the important factors affecting the quality of management decisions is the number of levels of management in the organization, the increase of which leads to the distortion of information when preparing a decision, the distortion of orders coming from the subject of management, and increases the sluggishness of the organization. The same factor contributes to the delay in the information that the subject of the decision receives. This determines the constant desire to reduce the number of levels of management of the organization.

A serious problem associated with the effectiveness of management decisions is also the problem of implementing these decisions. Up to a third of all management decisions do not achieve their goals due to a low performance culture. In our and foreign countries, sociologists belonging to various schools pay close attention to improving performance discipline, including ordinary employees in the development of solutions, motivating such activities, fostering “company patriotism,” and stimulating self-government.

Decision levels

Differences in the types of decisions and differences in the difficulty of the problems to be solved determine the level of decision making.

M. Woodcock and D. Francis distinguish four levels of decision-making, each of which requires certain managerial skills: routine, selective, adaptive, innovative.

The first level is routine. Decisions made at this level are ordinary, routine decisions. As a rule, the manager has a certain program, how to recognize the situation, what decision to make. In this case, the manager behaves like a computer. Its function is to "feel" and identify the situation, and then take responsibility for starting certain actions. The leader must have a flair, correctly interpret the available indications for a particular situation, act logically, make the right decisions, show determination, ensure effective actions at the right time. This level does not require creativity, as all actions and procedures are predetermined.

The second level is selective. This level already requires initiative and freedom of action, but only within certain limits. The manager is faced with a range of possible solutions, and his task is to evaluate the merits of such solutions and select from a number of well-established alternative courses of action those that best suit the given problem. Success and effectiveness depend on the manager's ability to choose a course of action.

The third level is adaptive. The manager must come up with a solution that can be completely new. Before the leader - a set of proven features and some new ideas. Only personal initiative and the ability to make a breakthrough into the unknown can determine the success of a manager.

The fourth level, the most difficult, is innovative. At this level, the most difficult problems are solved. A completely new approach is required on the part of the manager. This may be a search for a solution to a problem that was previously poorly understood or for which new ideas and methods are required. The leader must be able to find ways to understand completely unexpected and unpredictable problems, develop the ability and ability to think in a new way. The most modern and difficult problems may require the creation of a new branch of science or technology for their solution.

Optimization of management decisions

The most common methods for optimizing management decisions are:

• mathematical modeling;
• method of expert assessments;
• brainstorming method (brainstorming);
• game theory.

Mathematical modeling are used in cases where a management decision is made on the basis of extensive digital information that can be easily formalized. The widespread use of mathematical models allows us to give a quantitative description of the problem and find the best solution.

The main stages of optimizing a management decision using mathematical methods are:

Formulation of the problem.

The choice of an efficiency criterion, which should be expressed unambiguously, for example, by a certain number, and reflect the degree of compliance of the results of solving the set goal.

Analysis and measurement of variables (factors) that affect the value of the efficiency criterion.

Construction of a mathematical model.

Mathematical solution of the model.

Logical and experimental verification of the model and the solution obtained with its help.

Methods of expert assessments are applied in those cases when the problem completely or partially cannot be formalized and cannot be solved by mathematical methods.

The method of expert assessments is a study of complex special issues at the stage of development of a managerial decision by persons with special knowledge and experience in order to obtain conclusions, opinions, recommendations and assessments. The expert opinion is drawn up in the form of a document in which the course of the study and its results are recorded. The introduction indicates: who, where, when and in connection with what organizes and conducts the examination. Further, the object of examination is fixed, the methods used for the study and the data obtained as a result of the study are indicated. The final part contains conclusions, recommendations and practical measures proposed by the experts.

The most effective application of the method of expert assessments is in the analysis of complex processes that have mainly qualitative characteristics, in forecasting trends in the development of the trading system, and in evaluating alternative solutions.

brainstorming method(brainstorming) is used in cases where there is a minimum of information about the problem being solved and a short time frame is set for its solution. Then experts are invited who are related to this problem, they are invited to participate in an accelerated discussion of its solution. The following rules are strictly observed:

everyone speaks in turn;

speak only when they can offer new idea;

statements are not criticized or condemned;

all offers are fixed.

Usually this method allows you to quickly and correctly solve the problem.

A variation of the brainstorming method is jury opinion. The essence of this method is that experts are involved in the discussion of the problem. various areas activities that interact with each other. For example, managers of the production, commercial and financial divisions of the company are involved in the decision to release a new product. Application this method contributes to the generation of new ideas and alternatives.

One of the methods for optimizing management decisions in the conditions of market competition is the use of methods used in game theory, the essence of which is to model the impact of the decision on competitors. For example, if, using game theory, the management of a trading firm concludes that if the prices of goods are increased by competitors, then it is probably advisable to abandon the decision to raise prices in order not to be at a competitive disadvantage.

Methods for optimizing management decisions can complement each other and be used in a complex way when making important management decisions.

The choice of methods for optimizing management decisions largely depends on the information support of management.

Many Japanese companies used the ringisei decision-making system to some extent, which provides in-depth study and coordination of decisions.

The classic “ringisei” procedure provided for multiple approval of the prepared decision at several levels of management, starting with ordinary employees (one of them is entrusted with drawing up a preliminary draft decision) and ending with top managers who approve the decision that has passed all stages of approval. Coordination includes consultations at the level of ordinary employees of various departments (they are carried out by an employee responsible for preparing a preliminary draft decision), at the level of heads of departments and other units (carried out in the form of circulation of a draft decision to all departments relevant to this issue), and then more high leaders - deputies and heads of departments or departments. By the end of circulation, the draft document is endorsed by the personal seals of dozens of chiefs of various ranks. In case of disagreement during the preparation of a decision at one level or another, consultative meetings of leaders of the corresponding level are held, during which an agreed position is developed. This practice of preparing decisions is quite complicated and lengthy, but most Japanese corporations slow down decision-making, relying on the fact that the “ringisei” procedure, which ensures the coordination of actions at the decision-making stage, facilitates the coordination of their subsequent implementation.

The system has undeniable advantages. However, it is not without some shortcomings. It is believed that the procedure should ensure the flow of new ideas and freedom of opinion when discussing decisions. But this is not always the case. Sometimes, in conditions of rigid hierarchy and respect for superiors, such a process comes down to attempts by subordinates to anticipate the opinion of leaders, rather than promoting their independent point of view. In this form, the ringisei system often turned into a complex and not always useful mechanism that took up a lot of time for managers and employees of different ranks to coordinate decisions.

Therefore, there is a gradual reduction in the sphere of influence of the ringisei decision-making method. This is due to a number of reasons, including the widespread use of planning and budgeting methods in Japanese firms (due to this, there was no need to make decisions on many issues by the traditional method). Considering that long-term planning is used, according to available data, by 83% of Japanese firms, the scale of such changes is quite tangible. At 63% of Japanese firms, the power of individuals to make decisions has been strengthened, which again has led to a reduction in the scope of ringisei. By 1974, 4% of Japanese companies had completely eliminated the ringisei system.

Topic: "Management decision-making in the organization."

INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………...…..2

1. The main stages of preparation of management decisions……………………5

2. Decision-making process………………………………………………………6

2.1. Principle of purpose .............................................................................................. 8

2.2. The principle of legal security of a management decision…………..10

2.3. The principle of control optimization………………………………………..11

2.4. The principle of delegation of authority……………………………………..16

3. Methods of making management decisions………………………………..19

3.1. Creative methods………………………………………………………….21

3.1.1. Systematic-logical methods………………………………………...23

3.1.2. Intuitive and creative methods…………………………………………27

3.2. Methods for evaluating and selecting alternatives……………………………………….35

3.2.1. Scoring methods………………………………………………….35

3.2.2. ABC analysis……………………………………………………………….38

3.2.3. Portfolio analysis……………………………………………………..41

3.2.4. "Decision tree"………………………………………………………...43

4. Making decisions in difficult situations and the difficulties of its implementation.

4.1. Problems of Unique Choice……………………………………………....46

5.Practical part.………………………………………………………………..49

CONCLUSION ………………………………………………………………...50

BIBLIOGRAPHY …………………………………………………….51

Introduction

The creation of a large number of enterprises of various forms of ownership during the formation of a market economy in our country led to the fact that managers had to learn to manage on their own, and not at the behest "from above". One of the elements of independent management of the enterprise's activities is making managerial decisions.

Management Decision Making Process relevant due to the fact that the scale, number of elements and relationships of sub-systems in organizational systems are expanding more and more. The complication of connections between the elements of the system causes uncertainty in the knowledge of the real structure of the system, which may be due to the so-called human factor, intentional or special distortion of information, etc.

Sometimes the definition of a management decision is limited only by the choice of a possible course of action. Such an approach impoverishes the content of this category of management theory and does not correspond to its essence.

Management decisions can be made applicable to any area of ​​the organization: personnel management, financial management, production process management, including marketing service management.

The relevance of the work is explained by the fact that the existence of any organization is impossible without the constant daily adoption and implementation of certain decisions at various levels of management. At the same time, managerial decisions are aimed at achieving the most optimal result of the activity of the organizational and production system.

What is a decision? Let's try to give at first the most general characteristic. Usually, in the course of any activity, situations arise when a person or a group of people is faced with the need to choose one of several possible options for action. The result of this choice will be the decision. Thus, a decision is a choice of an alternative. Each of us daily has to choose something dozens of times on our own experience, developing abilities and acquiring decision-making skills. There are many examples: the choice of clothes from the existing wardrobe, the choice of dishes from the proposed menu.

Any act of an individual or action of a collective is preceded by a decision. Decisions are a universal form of behavior of both an individual and social groups. This universality is explained by the conscious and purposeful nature of human activity. However, despite the universality of decisions, their adoption in progress organization management significantly different from decisions made in private life.

There are many different unique choice problems. First of all, we single out the problems in which, in principle, one can find rational, understandable to other people, a statement of the reasons that led to the choice of one of the alternatives (note that many human, "everyday" problems of choice do not fall under this definition). The most characteristic problems of rational choice are the problems that arise before people working in different administrative services - in the management of organizations and a set of organizations . Any employee of the administrative apparatus must be rational, if only in order to be able to explain to others the logical grounds for his choice.

Problems of choosing a rational management decision in unique situations, characteristic of administrative activities (the choice of an investment plan, the choice of projects for research and development, the choice of a plan for the production of products, the choice of a long-term plan for the development of an enterprise, etc.) have always been of interest to many specialists and researchers. The list of such problems is quite extensive, but they all have the following common features:

Uniqueness, uniqueness of the situation of choice;

Difficult to assess the nature of the alternatives under consideration;

Insufficient certainty of the consequences of decisions made;

The presence of a set of heterogeneous factors that should be taken into account;

The presence of a person or group of persons responsible for making decisions.

Problems of rational choice in unique situations have always existed, but for a number of reasons, their importance has increased significantly in recent decades. First of all, the dynamism of the environment has sharply increased and the period of time when the decisions made earlier remain correct has decreased. Secondly, the development of science and technology has led to the emergence of a large number of alternative choices. Thirdly, the complexity of each of the options for making decisions has increased. Fourth, the interdependence of different decisions and their consequences has increased. As a result of all this, the difficulties of rationally solving the problems of unique choice have increased dramatically. These problems have become much more complex, and people, leaders of organizations, meet them more and more often. In the future, we can expect an even greater variety of difficult and responsible problems of unique choice.

How are such problems usually solved? We know from history that experienced managers are distinguished by the ability to make the best use of your experience and intuition . In situations of making unique decisions, there is always a lack of information, which can only be covered by believing in one of the possible hypotheses. Experienced managers usually use all helpful tips, but they act in their own way, on the basis of their own model of the development of future events, their assessment of certain personalities. The problems of making unique decisions have always required creativity, insight, in other words, rational choice in unique situations is inherently a special art.

aim term paper is the study of the functional organization of the process of making managerial decisions, as well as the consideration of the order and methods of decision-making.

1. The main stages of preparation of managerial decisions.

Management decision - this is a creative act of the subject of management, aimed at eliminating the problems that have arisen in the subject of management. Development and decision-making is a creative process in the activities of leaders. It usually includes a number of stages:

development and goal setting;

study of the problem;

selection and justification of the criteria for effectiveness and possible consequences of the decisions made;

consideration of options for solutions;

selection and final formulation of the decision;

· decision-making;

bringing decisions to the executors;

· Monitoring the implementation of decisions.

Under management decision understand the choice of alternative; action to resolve a problem. Ultimately, the management decision is presented as a result management activities. In a broader sense, a managerial decision is considered as the main type of managerial work, a set of interrelated, purposeful and logically consistent managerial actions that ensure the implementation of managerial tasks.

Solutions can be classified in many ways. However, the determining factor is the conditions under which the decision is made.

Decisions are usually made in an environment of certainty and risk (uncertainty). Under certainty, the manager is relatively certain of the outcome of each of the alternatives. In an environment of risk (uncertainty), the maximum that a manager can do is to determine the probability of success for each alternative.

There are other criteria for classifying management decisions:

Classification of management decisions. Tab. one.

2. Decision making process.

The decision-making process is complex and multilateral. It includes a number of stages and operations. Questions about how many and what stages the decision-making process should go through, what is the specific content of each of them, are controversial and are solved differently by different leaders. It depends on the qualifications of the manager, the situation, the style of leadership and the culture of the organization. It is important that each manager understands the strengths and limitations of each approach and decision-making procedure and is able to choose the best option for the situation And own management style.

The classical approach to making a managerial decision is to follow a certain procedure and perform mandatory actions (Fig. 1).

Rice. one. Elements the process of making managerial decisions.

The main tasks of management science are the study and practical application of the principles of development of the entire set of managerial relations and various forms of their manifestation in setting goals, developing plans, creating economic and organizational conditions for the effective operation of labor collectives. The study and mastery of these regularities are a necessary condition for improving the management of public and private production, improving the economic infrastructure and raising the national economy of the country.

The team is a particularly complex object of management., i.e. a group of people united on the basis of common tasks, joint actions, constant contacts. The intellectual, cultural and moral potential of the members of the team is so different that it is difficult to predict the reaction of each individual to the control action. How to maintain friendly, cordial relations in the family, how to establish and maintain mutual understanding with your colleague, how to influence the team in order to achieve the fulfillment of tasks without conflicts and stress? The principles of management as the foundation of the most complex of the arts - the art of management do not claim to be a panacea for all occasions, but in all cases they will not leave a person without reasonable, well-thought-out recommendations by professional experts.

So, the principles of management determine the patterns of formation of a controlled system: its structures, methods of influencing the team, form the motivation of the behavior of its members, take into account the features of the technology and technical equipment of managerial work. The art of management cannot be based only on intuition, the talent of a leader. This art is based on a solid theoretical base accumulated over thousands of years by human civilization - on the principles and laws of control. Let's take a look at the most important of these principles.

2.1. Purpose principle.

In control goal problem is central, it determines and regulates actions and is the basic law, a complex algorithm of behavior that subjugates all aspects of the control action. In cybernetics, the goal is understood as the action of feedbacks, in which information about the difference between the required and the fact stimulates the system to approach the optimal state. The functioning of any system, including human activity, will be effective if the cause-and-effect relationship between the elements of its structure is included as the most important link in a well-founded, appropriate to the conditions and opportunities, clearly formulated goal.

Production, and even more so public administration, along with strategic goals, must solve a significant set of interrelated organizational, scientific, social and technical problems. Simultaneously with traditional, predetermined tasks, emergency situations constantly arise that require urgent operational solutions, often the success of the team's activities depends on the skillful solution of numerous and unexpectedly emerging acute problems. The art of determining the most important tactical goals, determining the sequence and methods for their solution is the basis of the art of management and is often based on foresight and intuition. However, the list of key, central tasks and, consequently, the expected effect from their solution can and must be determined in advance for each of the main management subsystems. An example of defining such main tasks (goals) is given in Table 2.

The main objectives of the most important production management subsystems. Table 2.

The variety of goals and production tasks is so great that there is a need to apply network modeling methods and some concepts of graph theory. The methods of constructing a target model in the form of a tree-like graph (a tree of goals) have gained great popularity, the top of which is the general goal, and the branches are sets of tasks, the solution of which will ensure the achievement of the goal. Such a hierarchical structure clearly demonstrates the need for an organizational and informational connection between the tasks of subsystems and the stages of achieving the goal. The goal tree does not show how to achieve the goal, but only determines the final results of each stage of the planned work. The number of levels of such a structure depends on the complexity of the goal and the number of intermediate stages of work.

The method of building a tree of goals served as the basis for the development of a new concept of production and public administration, called "goal management". In this case, the monitoring and evaluation of the activities of each element of the management system are carried out according to the results achieved (for example, the quantity and quality of products, economic efficiency, labor productivity, labor discipline, etc.). To determine new priorities and adjust local goals, the so-called "management audit". A constant focus on the general goal of the enterprise and control over the achievement of local goals are characteristic of Japanese management and many firms in America and Europe. However, the method of management by objectives will not be effective if management is highly centralized and labor motivation is weak.

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

Fig 2. Tree of enterprise goals

So, one of the most important principles of management can be formulated briefly and clearly: every action must have a clear and definite purpose. This principle applies to all types of human activity, from state and industrial management to the tactics of individual behavior in everyday life. interpersonal levels. Without knowing the goal and the results that can be expected when it is achieved, any action, any act is doomed to failure or can cause a serious conflict.

2.2. The principle of legal security of management decisions.

The interaction between the producer and the consumer, between the seller and the buyer, depends on many legal restrictions. More and more new laws are constantly being born, codes are changing. Each department of Russia, "meeting the wishes of the workers", is constantly "improving" the system of accounting, reporting and supervision: the requirements for food quality and consumer protection, labor protection and standards of working conditions, environmental protection and etc. No matter how the heads of enterprises and firms treat these legal acts, it is necessary to comply with or at least reckon with them - otherwise large fines or decisions to completely stop the operation of the enterprise are inevitable.

Federal laws such as consumer protection, antitrust and competition, standardization (which formed the basis social movement, called consumerism abroad, and the activities of the Union of Consumers of Russia), certification of products and services, advertising, etc., are already yielding tangible results

The principle of legal security requires the heads of enterprises to be aware of the current legislation and make management decisions only taking into account the compliance of these decisions with the current legal acts.

2.3. Principle of control optimization.

Timely processing of information about internal processes in the organization system and its comprehension enable reasonable management solutions, improve intra-system communications, increase the efficiency of interaction with the external environment. Control optimization allows improving the structure of the managed object and increasing its functionality, which ultimately leads to the weakening or complete elimination of internal negative processes. This important management principle can be formulated as follows: management optimization increases efficiency of the managed organization system. The validity of the principle is confirmed by countless examples, since the principles of management are universal and can be attributed to any operating open system - technological processes, production teams or intra-family relations. Optimization of management, including self-regulation processes, for any complex systems(be it a person, a firm, a manufacturing enterprise or the economy as a whole) is the main condition for development and the guarantor of effective activity. Improvement of management processes in labor collectives has the main goal of increasing labor productivity while reducing contradictions between the manager and the performers. The ecological needs of society and technological progress are in constant conflict, and the main task of production workers is to reduce the negative impact technological processes on the state of the environment.

The effectiveness of a controlled system also depends on the degree of its openness, susceptibility to external information (the well-known parachute principle: it operates only when it is open). During the years of stagnation, many branches of our industry and enterprises found themselves in the position of closed systems, and their development slowed down significantly. Optimization does not necessarily lead to an increase in complexity, but is always characterized by the search for qualitatively new ways and structural rationalization.

Optimization and simplification of complex production systems - necessary condition to make better use of the ever-increasing amounts of information that drives the progress of these systems.

This fundamental principle of management provides answers to the most important, fundamental, and of great practical importance questions - what decision should the leader make: concentrate all the power in his hands or distribute most of it to his colleagues? Centralization or decentralization? When and in what cases is centralization necessary? What is the optimal management structure for this production situation? And finally, how many employees should report directly to the manager? Three, five, maybe ten? Agree that every leader should know the answers to these burning questions.

Centralization of management, says theory and confirms practice, has undoubted advantages in solving global, strategic tasks. It allows for a wide, large-scale distribution of all types of reserves and resources, but at the same time, the creative initiative of the performers is inevitably suppressed, and tactical tasks are not always optimally solved. But in some, most often extreme, situations, the principle of unity of command is absolutely indispensable: war, fire, natural disasters.

An important consequence is the principle unity of command- An employee should receive orders from only one immediate supervisor. This clear and understandable rule is constantly violated, it is difficult for the boss to overcome the temptation to intervene in the production process himself, and his instructions seem to him, undoubtedly, the wisest. Example: A director walks through a shop and sees a group of workers moving a machine. "Why are you putting it here? It won't be comfortable there, put it in this place!" And soon there will be a stormy explanation with the foreman: there is an approved plan, the place for the machine has been thought out in advance, necessary communications. The director is wrong twice: he made an unreasonable engineering decision and gave it to the performers over the head of their immediate superior.

Decentralization management frees team members from constant annoying guardianship, effectively stimulates initiative, and more fully reveals the potential of individuals. An ordinary worker performs a task with redoubled energy if he is given at least a minimal degree of actual control of the situation.

Decentralization is effective if reasonable and important decisions are made at the lower levels of the management hierarchy and these decisions do not require approval and approval by management (for example, when ensuring operational management, resolving personnel issues, etc.). Decentralization of many managerial functions is inevitable with the territorial disunity of the structural divisions of the enterprise (branches, departments of structural divisions) or if specialization is necessary (research institutes, design bureaus, a central warehouse with a large volume of loading and unloading operations, etc.). But the decentralization of control has a dangerous tendency to drag the controlled process into anarchy and chaos. Often, even experienced leaders are justifiably afraid of losing control over the managed system, and weak ones are afraid that a competent informal leader will appear who can replace his boss and undermine his authority. Delegating their powers to executors during decentralization, the manager often cannot answer specific questions from his immediate superiors or when speaking at a general meeting. For example, what is the turnover of personnel in specialties for the reporting period, how is the production process provided by machine operators of various profiles, what kind of spare parts are needed, what additional electrical equipment and instrumentation are needed. Competent deputy heads know the answers to these questions very well, but the head himself in this situation feels, to put it mildly, uncomfortable. Should he know the answers to these and hundreds of other small production questions?

So, how should the leader, the first person of the enterprise, use his power more wisely, especially if this enterprise is a private company? Management theory gives clear, unambiguous recommendations: the manager must take all organizational and administrative power into his own hands and delegate a significant part of his powers to experienced deputies, experts in their field. And at the same time, do not interfere with their work with petty guardianship, constant monitoring, if they are basically successfully fulfilling their official duties. "It's not broken - don't fix it!", and if you remember the Hippocratic oath, then "Do no harm!" And only in case of a clear threat of disruption of the planned work or an obvious inconsistency of the performer with the position held, the manager is obliged to actively intervene in the work of the lagging structural unit, using full power up to replacing the performer.

Such an extremely rare situation is possible when all structural divisions work without failures, plans are fulfilled, a clear system of logistics is established, the work of the team is reasonably motivated and the leader remains, as it were, without work (as a well-played orchestra can play without a conductor after many rehearsals). In this case, the leader is a real talent, an excellent organizer! And all the same, it will not remain idle, it is necessary to solve long-term, strategic tasks, to establish new industrial relations, work on further improvement of the production organism, issues of enterprise development. Good management is based on the reconciliation of centralization and decentralization.

There remains one more, very significant question: how many subordinates can and should be had, what is the standard of manageability of a leader? In a painful, difficult way, humanity has come to understand that an overestimated norm of controllability can lead to a loss of control and disorganization of the enterprise.

The managerial standard depends on several factors:

• type of production (serial, small-scale, individual), its complexity and responsibility;
• the equipment of the work of the manager with technical means of control (a personal computer and an information database created on its basis, the effectiveness of existing communication links, etc.);
• the leader's place in the hierarchical structure, which determines the complexity of the problems being solved, the measure of his responsibility and, of course, the strength of the emotional load;
• knowledge and experience of the leader (the art of management!).

The usual rate of manageability ranges from three to seven directly subordinate to the head of the performers.

This concerns the need to improve the organizational structure of the enterprise, since a suboptimal management structure is the most common flaw in the production activities of many teams. Organizational structure should reflect a long-term program and a set of main goals of the organization, since the achievement of goals is the basis of joint activities. Finally, the structure must respond to changes in the external and internal environment. The organizational structure is effective only when it contributes to the achievement of the goals set by the team at the minimum cost of labor and resources. It is important to note that the achievement of goals is not only an effective solution of production problems and, as a result, fair remuneration, but also other ways of motivation: involvement in solving problems, prestige of work and confidence in career growth. The search for the optimal structure for a given time is often accompanied by serious mistakes: exceeding the norm of manageability of executives, an incorrectly chosen management style, attempts to achieve savings by combining structural units with similar profiles (a single office or a joint bureau of copying equipment, etc.).

2.4. The principle of delegation of authority.

Delegation principle It consists in the transfer by the head of a part of the powers, rights and responsibilities entrusted to him to his competent employees. The main practical value of the principle is that the manager frees his time from less complex daily affairs, routine operations and can concentrate his efforts on solving problems of a more complex managerial level; at the same time, which is very important for the leader, compliance with the norm of manageability is ensured. At the same time, this method is a purposeful form of staff development, contributes to the motivation of their work, the manifestation of initiative and independence.

The main task of the leader is not to do the work himself, but to ensure the organization labor process collectively, take responsibility and use power to achieve the goal. To build relations between the boss and subordinates on cunning, deceit or flattery is immoral and hopelessly wrong. People, with all their individual differences, behave predictably in a normal, regular situation - if the team knows its tasks and understands the methods used by the leader to achieve the goal with minimal difficulties, then you can confidently count on the support of the majority and find performers who can trust independent solution of local and sometimes multifunctional tasks. Such an employee, singled out from the team for his undoubted organizational skills and professional knowledge, is well aware of the benefits of the trust placed in him, is proud of the awareness of his significance and will try to justify the trust placed in him. Delegation of authority is possible and expedient if the leader has prepared worthy performers, trusts them and can skillfully manage them.

R

Z Z

Rice. 3. Hierarchical pyramid

The hierarchical pyramid (Fig. 3) illustrates the subordination of performers to their leaders up to the highest. In the figure: P - head, 3 - deputies, BUT - heads of departments, WG - group leaders, 1I-4I - performers.

Methods for solving production and organizational problems are always multivariate, and if a subordinate uses his own, independent, yet, perhaps, non-optimal decision tactics, then this is another positive feature of the principle of delegation of authority - the performer goes through a good and absolutely necessary school of managerial development, learns to be independent. The performer asserts himself, his self-confidence and initiative grow. At the same time, it is important to remember that the performer has the right to make a mistake, and in this case, the manager is obliged to provide him with all possible assistance in the most tactful manner. After all, one of the main tasks of a leader is to develop the abilities and skills of a subordinate.

A particularly delicate aspect of this principle is the organization of control over the actions of subordinates. Petty guardianship will not give anything but harm (violation of the principle of least impact!), The lack of control can lead to disruption of work and anarchy. The solution to the problem of control lies in well-established feedback, in the free exchange of information between colleagues and, of course, in a sufficiently high authority and managerial skill of the leader. By the way, an experienced official high level, wanting to form an objective opinion about the quality of the leader’s work, he is always interested in how his subordinates work (this characterizes the leader very well).

However, there is a set of managerial tasks, the solution of which should be left to the head. This is primarily the definition of goals, policies of the organization and the adoption of fundamental decisions. The duty of the first person to assume the performance of tasks with a high degree of risk, of a particularly confidential nature and all unusual ones that go beyond the established regulations and traditions of the operation. Considering situations where a managerial decision can cause irreversible consequences, it is appropriate to draw a comparison between the responsibility of a general practitioner and a surgeon. The therapist can more easily entrust the treatment of the patient to his junior colleague, since at any moment he can join the treatment process, but the surgeon, with great care and caution, decides to entrust the operation to his student.

The importance of the principle of delegation of authority especially grows in conditions of dominance economic methods management, the implementation of which is practically impossible without the independence and creative initiative of the performers. This principle once again confirms the validity of the well-known formula: "Never do yourself what your subordinates can do, except in those cases when a person's life is at stake."

3. Methods for making managerial decisions.

All decision-making methods can be combined into three groups (Fig. 4).

Rice. 4. Classification of methods for making managerial decisions.

1. Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods are based on the analytical abilities of decision makers. This is a theoretical comparison of alternatives based on experience. For the most part, such methods are based on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that decisions are made promptly; intuition can sometimes fail.

2. Highlight in collective methods- this is the definition of the circle of persons participating in this procedure. Most often, this is a temporary team, which includes, as a candidate, both leaders and performers. The main criteria for the formation of a group are competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills. collective forms group work may be different. Let's consider them further.

3. At the core quantitative methods lies the scientific and practical approach, which involves the choice of optimal solutions by processing (with the help of computers and EMMs) large amounts of information.

Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

a) linear modeling - linear dependencies are used;

b) dynamic programming - the introduction of additional variables in the process of solving problems;

c) probabilistic and statistical models - are implemented in the methods of queuing theory;

d) game theory - modeling of such situations, decision-making in which should take into account the discrepancy between the interests of various departments;

e) simulation models - allow you to experimentally verify the implementation of solutions, change the initial prerequisites, clarify the requirements for them.

Methods are concrete ways in which a problem can be solved.

2. Diagnostics - search for the most important details in the problem, which are solved in the first place (used with limited resources);

3. Expert assessments - any ideas are formed, considered, evaluated, compared;

4. Delphi method - experts who do not know each other are given questions related to solving the problem, the opinion of the minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or refute it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all the experts come to the same opinion, or move on to the fact that groups stand out that do not change their decision. This method is used to achieve efficiency;

5. Non-specialist method - the issue is solved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields.

Let's look at some methods.

3.1. Creative methods.

If we analyze the creative process more carefully, we can identify a typical sequence of its stages.

verification stage

incubation stage

problem analysis

Rice. 5. Stages of the creative process.

· The creative process begins with a logical, rational analysis of the problem that needs to be solved. It is, first of all, about a deeper understanding of the problem, its structuring and purposeful search for information;

The next stage is characterized by the "penetration" of the problem into a person (stage of incubation). A person leaves the rational level and in a certain sense transfers the problem to his subconscious. At the end of this stage, more or less spontaneously, ideas enter the mind of the person;

The last stage is to test the ideas (the verification stage). At this stage, on the basis of economic, technical, social or environmental criteria, ideas suitable for implementation are filtered out.

Various creative methods are used to support creative processes, reveal the creative potential of the individual and the group. Such methods should encourage people to look for unexpected, creative solutions to problems.

In general, the application of creative methods is based on a number of principles. In the field of organization of their application, the following are especially taken into account:

· for the application of creative methods it is necessary to create an atmosphere of equality of participants and their independence from external influences. For each participant of the creative meeting, it is necessary to create a space for reflection, the search for ideas, free from hierarchical and status considerations, fear and criticism;

· the use of most methods in groups is aimed at the fact that team members (perhaps consisting of representatives of various disciplines and directions) will mutually stimulate each other to search for and develop ideas.

All creative methods in accordance with the process of their implementation can be divided into two groups (Table 3).

Classification of creative methods

Table 3.

Systematic-logical

Intuitive and creative

Based on the systematic development of ideas. Essence: the original problem is divided into sub-problems, which are considered separately. The general solution is found by combining partial solutions. Examples: morphology, method of systematized integration of solution elements. These methods are often said to be not truly creative because they are based on analytical thinking. This objection is unjustified, since these methods contain a significant part of the creative elements, which, along with logical-combinational thinking, imply the presence of fantasy and creativity.

They must first of all lead to overcoming habitual standards of thinking. Essence: consciously rejecting systematization and logic, mentally moving away from the problem being solved, it is required to achieve stimulation of creative processes. They are characterized by the spontaneity of the emergence of ideas, mutual associations and stimulation of participants, drawing analogies. Examples: brainstorming, method 635, synectics, bionics, etc.

3.1.1. Systematic-logical methods.

a) Morphology (the doctrine of ordered thinking).

Problem solving is usually complex. It consists of many partial solutions. To search for an innovative solution, an approach based on a combination of partial solutions into an innovative general one is possible. Morphology represents the principles and rules, following which increases the purposefulness and rationality of the decision-making process. At the same time, morphology reveals the variety of possible solutions that may arise in the course of a combination of all possible alternatives for solving subproblems.

The main field of application of the method is the search for innovative solutions, and here it is used primarily for the development of material objects (for example, the development of new products). The method includes six steps:

general statement of the problem;

The problem is divided into components (parameters), on which its solution depends;

For each parameter, a list of known and potential solutions is formed;

· the parameters and their solutions are reduced to a "morphological box" (special matrix);

Innovative solutions are tested for feasibility.

The morphology is excellent for combining already existing partial solutions into an innovative common decision. The problem for the user is the choice of parameters, since this requires analytical and abstraction abilities. Consider the following when choosing options:

problem parameters should not depend on each other (for their combination);

It is necessary to cover all essential parameters and discard non-essential ones;

You need to select only those parameters that correspond to all options solutions.

Fig.6.

The user's awareness of all possible partial solutions is also of great importance, otherwise the matter may be limited to the most known and innovatively uninteresting aspects. At the same time, the required variety of solutions leads to complication, loss of visibility, which necessitates the use of computer technology.

b) The method of systematized integration of solution elements.

A prerequisite for solving a problem is often the presence of innovative ideas. As problems become more complex, having a single innovative idea is often not enough to generate a meaningful overall solution. Since an individual worker is usually unable to provide ideas for solving all aspects of a problem, it makes sense to integrate the strengths of many workers. Based on this method of systematic integration of solution elements. To use the creative potential of employees, the advantages of individual and group work are combined here. The main area of ​​application of the method is complex problem situations, the solution of which should be innovative and group.

The method is implemented within the framework of a meeting, in which, as a rule, from 5 to 7 people participate. The meeting usually lasts about half a day. For clarity, as in metaplanning, projectors and special boards are used. The method is implemented in the following sequence:

each participant develops a possible solution individually for about 20 minutes;

To bring the decisions of the participants in a visual form, the board is divided into parts: individual decision of the participants; especially successful (in the process of discussion); integrated solution;

· then (in any sequence) the first participant explains his decision and puts it on the first part of the board;

· other participants discuss the proposal and note its strengths on the second part of the board;

Then the same happens with the second participant;

· The group then attempts to combine the positives of both proposals and develop an integrated solution that combines the benefits. If this is successful, the solution is recorded on the third part of the board. If not, both sentences remain until they can be combined with subsequent ones;

· Finally, the group tries to find additional ideas by arbitrarily combining proposals that have not found application in integrated solutions.

Rice. 7.

A significant advantage of the method is that as a result of its application, complex solutions to the problem are formed with a higher level of maturity than in the case of using purely group methods. A positive sense of success is provided by the fact that all proposals are discussed from a positive and constructive point of view, and, as a rule, at least partially become an element of a common solution. It should be noted that an important prerequisite for the successful application of the method is the ability of the participants to work in groups and the presence of an experienced facilitator.

3.1.2. Intuitive and creative methods.

a) Brainstorming.

This method is known in the widest circles. However, engineers who have studied heuristic methods of creativity are more familiar with it. Heuristics had a resounding success in the romantic 60s, when it seemed to many that prosperity awaited humanity at the next historical turn, the material part of which was sculpted by bearded "physicists", and the spiritual component - by violent romantic lyricists.

"Guided Imagination", which revealed the principles and procedures of creative thinking.

To participate in the stage of generating ideas, it is advisable to involve people who are distinguished by good creative abilities, high speed of thought processes, ease of inclusion in new situations, flexibility, and the ability to quickly switch attention from one aspect to another. The ability to move away from the usual attitudes and psychological "brakes" allows you to expand the scope of each of the participants in the assault. Removing the pressure of previous professional and everyday experience increases sensitivity to very weak associations, on the basis of which unexpected, original, and sometimes shocking creative discoveries are born.

Western experts believe in the best possible way brainstorming so-called I-G-I method(individual - group - individual).

Participants in the assault are asked to develop initial ideas. For this, 4-7 people gather in one room. Participants are not allowed to talk to each other - first comes individual work. The facilitator introduces the positioning strategy that should underlie the creative ideas and then acts as an observer. At the first stage, participants receive two instructions:

1) give out quantity, not quality;

2) issue at least 10 solutions (no more than 15 minutes are given for each).

The facilitator collects the ideas on paper and reproduces them on the projector screen or on the board. Then the group discussion stage begins according to the following scenario: each author briefly presents his idea, and the rest of the participants make comments and try to correlate each new idea with those that have already been heard. After a group discussion, the participants again move on to independent work and vote for the idea that they consider the best. Everyone has an equal vote. As a result, some of the best ideas are selected. You can rate them in order of 1, 2, 3, and so on down to the least interesting. The ideas with the highest overall score will be submitted for implementation and testing.

Discussion on this scenario will take no more than two hours. If you need a lot of creative ideas, then, according to the theory of chance, it is better to repeat procedure I-G-I with new members. Brainstorming procedures, of course, are not dogma. The quantitative composition of the participants, the requirements placed on them, the time limits for the assault, and finally, the sequence and cyclical nature of the procedures and stages can be changed, provided that the situation is clearly seen and the mechanisms for managing it are understood. It does not follow, however, that any new situation should automatically lead to a change in brainstorming procedures. It’s not worth it for a beginner, a leader, to go for it. Arranging a leapfrog in the procedure, he is likely to lose control of the situation, bring it to an uncontrollable situation, which will turn the assault into a fruitless exchange of views. An experienced specialist - the leader sees the greatest reserves not in changing the order of procedures, but in their deep awareness and competent execution.

"Brainstorming" is used, first of all, where the development of new concepts is required, a logical, routine approach is not applicable.

Empirical studies show that the advantage of properly organized brainstorming is that its results, both qualitatively and quantitatively, are many times superior to those of ordinary problem-solving meetings. Successful application of the method depends, however, on the willingness of the participants to abandon habitual thought patterns and "release" their creative energy. Often there is a departure of participants in own experience problem solving that prevents them from embarking on a creative path. Often a situation arises when a creative meeting turns into a professional discussion.

B) Delphi method.

The method got its name from the Greek city of Delphi, famous for the wise soothsayers who lived there. Delphi method This is a multi-round survey procedure. After each round, the data is finalized, and the results are reported to the experts, indicating the location of the estimates. The first round is held without argumentation, in the second - the answer differing from the others is argued (the expert can change the assessment). After the assessments stabilize, the survey is terminated and the decision proposed by the experts or the corrected decision is adopted.

A modification of this method is Japanese, the so-called. circular decision-making system - "kingisho", the essence of which is that an innovation project is being prepared for consideration. It is submitted for discussion to persons according to the list compiled by the head. Everyone should consider the proposed solution and give their comments in writing. This is followed by a meeting. As a rule, those specialists are invited whose opinion is not entirely clear to the manager. Experts choose their solution according to individual preferences. And if they do not match, then a preference vector arises, which is determined using one of the following principles:

b) the principle of a dictator - the opinion of one person of the group is taken as the basis. This principle is typical for military organizations, as well as for decision-making in emergency situations;

c) the Cournot principle - is used when there are no coalitions, i.e. the number of solutions equal to the number of experts is proposed. In this case, it is necessary to find a solution that would meet the requirement of individual rationality without infringing on the interests of each individual;

d) the Pareto principle - is used when making decisions when all experts form a single whole, one coalition. In this case, the optimal solution will be one that is unprofitable to change all members of the group at once, since it unites them in achieving a common goal;

e) the Edgeworth principle - is used if the group consists of several coalitions, each of which is unprofitable to cancel its decision. Knowing the preferences of coalitions, it is possible to make the optimal decision without harming each other.

c) Method 635.

Method 635 combines the basic principles of brainstorming and Delphi. The method, like all varieties of "brainstorming", is based on the development and interweaving of ideas in order to improve their quality. The method is suitable for all situations where the decision must be innovative and taken collectively.

The number 635 symbolically reflects 6 participants of the meeting, who within 5 minutes must develop at least 3 proposals for solving the problem. The proposals are written down on paper and passed to the neighboring participant in a clockwise direction. After each transmission, the participants again have 5 minutes to supplement or change the ideas received from their neighbors or add three new ideas from themselves. The session ends when each participant has completed each form.

Ideally, the duration of the method is 30 minutes, the number of ideas received is 108. The ideas are further analyzed and evaluated. The positive moment is the receipt of a large number of proposals in a short time. The problem lies in the frequent duplication of ideas, since already at the first stage the obvious ideas are expressed by many participants. It must also be assumed that some participants will not be able to come up with 3 ideas in 5 minutes. The main disadvantage is that this method is less dynamic and spontaneous than, for example, the "brainstorming" method, and also that direct feedback and joint processing of proposals are not possible here. The advantages are that the method does not put forward high requirements for participants, there is no need for professional management and accurate recording.

d) Synectics.

The word "synectics" is of Greek origin and literally means bringing together different, often apparently incompatible elements.

Idea synectics consists in uniting individual creators into a single group for joint setting and solving specific creative problems. The method is based on the use of unconscious mechanisms that manifest themselves in a person's thinking at the time of creative activity. In a situation where people - "sinectors" are united in a group, they are required to express their thoughts and feelings about the set creative task. An irrational form of discussion is the reason for the manifestation of metaphors and images in the memory. The disinhibition of thinking in a group of synectors leads to the stimulation of the subconscious and to the manifestation of creative intuition. The phenomenon of "insight" manifests itself quite often in the work of a well-trained, prepared group, when it acts in a coordinated manner, fixing itself on a more or less irrational basis of its reasoning on a problem, for some time, avoiding attempts to formulate finally completed ideas and thoughts.

A feature of this method, which distinguishes it from the brainstorming method, is the organization of the influence of the group on the creative activity of individuals. At the same time, attention is paid to attempts to surpass oneself, the rejection of standard approaches. The creative competition of participants has in the group of synectors great importance- everyone strives to "take over" the largest part of the creative decisions put forward. It is believed that the elegance of the decisions issued by the group is a function of the diversity of knowledge, interests, and emotional characteristics that the participants have.

An important criterion for the selection of group members is the emotional type. It affects how a person approaches a given task. Here one more significant line of differences between synectics and brainstorming is revealed. The selection of a group of brainstorming generators consists in identifying active creators with different knowledge. Their emotional types are not particularly taken into account. In synectics, it is quite the opposite. Rather, two people with the same baggage of knowledge and experience will be chosen, if at the same time they are completely different in the emotional sphere.

Often, the group includes an authoritative creative who is called upon to play the role of "arbitrator" or "lawyer" in the clash of "irreconcilable" creative positions, and he must also help the group members speak "the same language", reconcile the excessive creative ambitions of individual synectors. In the "lawyer" mode, the authority immediately - in the process of the group's work - reveals and rejects the weaknesses of the ideas, concepts, and approaches put forward.

So, synectics defines the creative process as mental activity in a situation of setting and solving a creative problem, where the result is the formulation of a new local idea.

Another sequence of steps within synectics is shown in Table 3.

Phases of the creative process	Stages of using synectics
Intensive problem handling: structuring; search for information; expanding understanding of the problem; searching of decisions	1. Analysis and problem definition 2. Spontaneous decisions 3. New formulation of the problem
Distance from the problem: spatial and temporal distance; change of field of activity; physical relaxation	4. Formation of direct analogies, for example, natural 5. Formation of personal analogies 6. Symbolic analogies 7. Direct analogies, for example, technical
Establishment of mental connections: subconscious, free thought processes; associations; structure transfer	8. Analysis of direct analogies 9. Transfer to the problem
Spontaneous solutions to the problem: insight Verification: proofreading and shaping ideas	10. Development of proposals for solving the problem

Through thinking with analogies, participants develop the ability to understand the essence of the problem and the ability to see the problem from different points of view. At the same time, nature is a particularly good guide for many technical solutions. The disadvantage of the method is that participants are usually able to analyze the problem from a professional point of view, but due to lack of knowledge in other areas, they are able to form only superficial analogies. The success of the application of the method also depends on the ability of participants to identify relationships between their problem and other areas.

http://dis00.narod.ru/halyava/3k/0 3.2. Methods for evaluating and choosing alternatives.

While the creative methods presented above are aimed primarily at finding new alternatives to the solution, methods of evaluation and selection of alternatives.

The main feature of these methods is the suitability for choosing one or more alternatives of actions. Decisions are made by all people every day, and often this is due to a change in the situation when making a decision. An individual makes decisions, for example, about buying a car, real estate, performing work during the working day. The company's management makes decisions, for example, between alternative investment opportunities. For all these decisions, evaluation and selection methods can be usefully applied.

The methods discussed below are among the most commonly used in practice. At the same time, they have significant differences in terms of application process and basic guidelines. Thus, the main task of the scoring method is to evaluate alternatives on the basis of many target criteria with different significance. ABC-analysis is used, first of all, when the solution process requires concentration on the most significant elements of the problem environment. The portfolio method is used to evaluate alternatives, first of all, when the optimal distribution of resources plays the main role in the choice. The special potential of the decision tree method lies in the structuring and visual representation of the multi-step decision process.

3.2.1. Scoring methods.

Many decisions are characterized by the need to choose from several alternatives. This choice implies that the individual alternatives are evaluated against the same criteria and in the same way. The scoring method is an effective way of selecting alternatives, is that the choice is made on the basis of specially selected significant criteria, weighted in accordance with their value. The method is used primarily in situations where the evaluation and selection of alternatives must be made on the basis of many target criteria with different weights.

First, it is necessary to select the evaluation criteria that are most important for a given situation. The set of criteria should reflect the entire list of factors that determine the success of the implementation of alternatives. Then, as a rule, the criteria are weighted, assigning weights to them in accordance with their significance for the decision being made. The alternatives are then evaluated against a set of criteria. The assessment is made using a scale that has from 3 to 10 values ​​(in practice, usually from 5 to 7). The extreme values ​​of the scale are indicated, for example, by the words "very strong" and "very weak". The overall rating of the alternative is made by summing the ratings for individual criteria, multiplied by the weight of the corresponding criteria. At the end, the alternative with the highest total estimated value is selected. It represents the best solution in a given situation.

An illustrative example of the application of the method is shown in fig. 9 (evaluation of various cars). First, all the most significant characteristics of cars are given. For each characteristic, a relative weight is determined, reflecting the influence of characteristics on the attractiveness of the car. Based on the subjective ideas of the decision maker, the coefficients are further determined showing the degree of implementation of the criteria for each car. The product of weights and coefficients forms indices. The index values ​​are then summed for each vehicle. The sum allows you to determine the best alternative. However, the total score only makes sense when compared to other alternatives. For clarity and greater comparability of alternatives, you can present the results in the form of a profile.

Characteristics influencing decision making (1)	Relative weight of characteristics (2)	Coefficient (3) 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0	Index (2)x(3)
			A1	A2
Sportiness economy Security Appearance Price	0,25 0,10 0,10 0,30 0,25		0,150 0,040 0,020 0,150 0,225	0,050 0,060 0,040 0,060 0,100
1,0	0,585	0,310
Rating scale 0 - 0.4 = bad; 0.41 - 0.75 = satisfactory; 0.76 - 1.0 = good
Car 1 (A1) Car 2 (A2)

Fig.9. Example scoring matrix

The scoring method is flexible, used in many areas and for the assessment of many objects. In the field of marketing, the method is used, for example, to compare product ideas, marketing systems and advertising media.

The most important advantage of the method lies in its simplicity. The flexibility of the method in choosing and weighing criteria provides it with a wide field of application. Another advantage of the scoring method is its visibility and visibility, which allows the decision maker to trace the entire evaluation process in detail and identify the influence of different value attitudes.

An essential problem of the method is the dependence on the subjective opinions of the decision makers. Thus, a set of criteria determines to a large extent the content of the assessment, only the coverage of all important criteria provides a qualitative assessment. Another problem is the determination of weights for the criteria, which is also based on the subjective opinion of people. Finally, subjectivity is also manifested in the evaluation of alternatives in terms of compliance with the selected criteria.

Another problem is determining the overall profitability of an alternative by summing the indices. This approach is generally very controversial, since it compensates for the positive and negative aspects of the alternative, the final value does not contain any indication of positive or negative trends. However, with the help of profiling, alternatives can be subjected to more detailed analysis and thereby avoid this problem.

The shortcomings of the method, namely the subjectivity of the selection and weighting of criteria, as well as the evaluation of alternatives, can be mitigated by involving many people in the evaluation process. Metaplanning can provide valuable assistance in objectifying the results of the method.

3.2.2. ABC analysis.

As already noted in the analysis of the scoring method, decision-making situations are characterized by the need to choose from many alternatives. The fact that not all alternatives are equally important in terms of impact on the overall result makes the decision quality dependent on identifying the most important factors and finding opportunities to influence them. The method by which individual elements are classified and visualized according to their importance to a particular problem is called ABC analysis.

Historically, the origin of the method is associated with the solution of supply problems, namely, the need to concentrate efforts on those products that have heaviest weight in the total cost of raw materials and materials.

In principle, ABC-analysis has a very wide scope, since, according to the studied quantities (for example, goods, customers), a wide variety of areas can be classified.

ABC analysis is based on the hypothesis that in reality, often 20% of the elements provide about 80% of the result. This hypothesis is based on the so-called Pareto principle, which was put forward by the Italian economist Pareto (1848-1923) and states that within a given group or population, individual objects have a much greater value than something that corresponds to their share in the size of this group. .

An example of an ABC analysis is the prioritization of management tasks. The most important tasks (A-group) that a manager deals with every day take up about 15% of his total working time. Their value, in terms of contribution to the achievement of goals, is within 65%. Tasks of medium importance (B-group) take about 20% of the time and also have a share of the result of about 20%. Minor tasks, on the contrary, require about 65% of the time and provide only about 15% of the achievement of goals. Graphically, the relationship between the volume of tasks and the significance (value) of tasks with the allocation of groups A, B, C is shown in Fig. 10.

Fig.10. ABC-analysis of performed tasks

Based on the example of using ABC analysis to study the distribution of a manager's time, the following steps can be distinguished:

a) compiling a list of all tasks that need to be completed within a certain time (week, day);

b) ordering tasks according to their significance and importance (in descending order of importance);

c) assigning a number to each task;

d) assessment of tasks according to the ABC principle: the first 15% belong to the A-group (very important, cannot be delegated, are of great importance for the performance of the function); the next 20% - B-group (important, significant, can be delegated); the remaining 65% - C-group (less important, insignificant, be sure to delegate);

e) checking the distribution of time for compliance with the importance of tasks: 65% of the time for the A-group; 20% of the time for the B-group; 15% of the time for the C-group.

f) carrying out corrective actions in order to consistently focus on A-tasks.

g) checking B-tasks and C-tasks for the possibility of delegation.

The scope of ABC analysis extends along with the establishment of time priorities to many other tasks. A frequently used option is the classification of the company's clients in terms of their importance for the success of the company and the subsequent division into A-, B-, C-groups. Very often, ABC analysis is used to study the significance of individual products of an enterprise in terms of results (sales, profits). This is done to optimize the structure of the sales program and clean up the program from unprofitable products.

ABC-analysis is an effective method of identifying from a variety of influencing factors and elements those that are of particular importance for achieving the goals and therefore should have a high priority.

The decisive advantage of ABC analysis lies in its ease of use, the method allows you to quickly draw conclusions that help reduce manager overload with details and provide best review problem area. With the help of ABC-analysis, the possibility of a consistent focus on the Pareto principle is realized, concentrating activity on the most important aspects of the problem. The activity is concentrated on solving the most important tasks, as a result, it becomes possible to purposefully reduce costs for other areas.

The weak point of the ABC analysis lies in the search for objective criteria for evaluating elements, criteria that are crucial for achieving a result. This problem is relatively easy to solve for quantitatively measurable factors (there are objective measures that can be used for comparison). Qualitative criteria (for example, the quality of the production program) are characterized by significantly greater requirements for the decision maker.

3.2.3. Portfolio analysis.

Main idea portfolio analysis comes from the field of financial management and is associated with the theory of the efficient portfolio of securities developed by Markowitz in the 50s, which analyzes investments in securities in terms of return and risk. The main idea is that certain types of investments are evaluated not by profitability and risk separately, but by the combination of these factors. This method of financial analysis has been widely used in the field of strategic planning since the early 70s, especially in the field of business planning and marketing. By analogy with investing in a portfolio of securities, the entire activity of an enterprise is considered as a portfolio consisting of various strategic business units (SBUs), and, as in the analysis of a financial portfolio, the main subject of assessment is the equilibrium state of the enterprise's production program).

All varieties of portfolio analysis are characterized by the construction of a two-dimensional evaluation field, in which the objects of study are placed (as carriers of a potential result). Portfolio analysis has two main areas of application: on the one hand, it is a method of analyzing the existing situation, on the other, it is a model for making strategic decisions. First, the objects of study are analyzed in accordance with the magnitude of their characteristics, then recommendations for their development are developed on this basis.

The best-known portfolio analysis models, the Boston Consulting Group's Market Share-Market Growth Matrix and McKinsey's Market Attractiveness-Competitive Advantage Matrix, are based on these assumptions. Today, there are many portfolio models not only in the field of management, but also in the field of personnel policy, in the field of solving the problems of entering a foreign market, in the field of technology management and in the environmental sphere.

The construction of a portfolio analysis model is based on three main parameters: the estimated characteristics, their division and objects of study.

Fig.11. Basic View portfolio analysis models.

On the coordinate axes in such a model (Fig. 9), characteristics are placed to assess the contents of the portfolio. Each axis can be considered either as one critical factor (for example, as it is done in the "market growth - market share" model), or as a multifactorial characteristic, which is a kind of index summarizing many factors important for decision making. The second approach underlies McKinsey's "Market Attractiveness - Competitive Advantage" matrix.

The object of study is placed in the coordinate system. The diameter of a circle reflecting an object reflects its relative importance compared to other objects.

The undeniable advantage of portfolio analysis lies in its simplicity, clarity and expressiveness. At the same time, the simplistic application of this method can lead to a dangerous narrowing of the field of analysis, especially in the field of strategic analysis. The two-dimensional nature of the method leads to an unacceptable reduction of strategic alternatives to two key factors (in the matrix of the Boston Consulting Group), which should accurately reflect the strategic position of the SBU.

When aggregating many influencing factors within multivariate analysis(for example, in the McKinsey matrix) to one characteristic, on the contrary, methodological problems arise, since many qualitative and quantitative criteria are combined through an assessment of their relative importance and existing level. Although multivariate analysis is more appropriate for the purpose of the method, its effectiveness is reduced as a result of aggregation problems. In addition, the inherent pseudo-accuracy of performance estimation entails a number of dangers in the analysis of odds and risk. The method captivates with its seeming accuracy, which in fact is not, since the identification and analysis of the main characteristics occurs under conditions of uncertainty. However, portfolio analysis is an important aid in structuring strategic issues.

3.2.4. "Decision tree".

Many problem situations are not associated with one solution, but require, depending on the complexity, the presence of many resulting from each other and interconnected solutions. With such a multi-stage form of the decision-making process, one speaks of a sequence, or a "chain", of decisions.

To systematize and provide visibility into multi-stage decision-making, the method is especially useful. "decision tree", in which the analyzed problem is presented in the form of a tree. A "decision tree" is a formal description of a problem and by itself does not initially contain any solution. Branches of the "tree" represent various alternatives of choice and situations of the environment, branches reflect the possible results of actions, each of which is assigned a certain probability of occurrence.

The decision tree method originates from the field of operations research, where it is applied to optimize decisions. Optimization is provided, first of all, due to uniquely determined probabilities of occurrence of each alternative. In addition, the decision tree method has other areas of application, primarily as a supporting function of the decision chain. The effectiveness of the method in this area is ensured, first of all, due to the structuring and visibility of multi-stage decision-making processes. Due to the latter circumstance, the scope of the method is very wide.

The main applications of the method relate to multi-stage solutions, and in recent years the method has been increasingly used in R&D planning, investment and finance, procurement, warehousing and marketing.

The existence of a set of data and alternatives necessitates the choice of alternatives that are really significant for the solution. The process of selection of alternatives requires a constant comparison of the costs of obtaining the information necessary to optimize the solution, c. the costs involved in obtaining and processing this information. When using the decision tree method, it should be especially taken into account that any Additional Information may reduce the clarity of the analysis results.

An important feature of this method is the combination and replacement of the so-called "decision forks" and "expectation forks". "Expectation branches" characterize possible scenarios for the development of the situation, and each scenario is assigned a certain probability. From the first branch of the decision, there are always at least two new branches, representing different alternatives of actions. All branches of the same level characterize different states of the environment at a certain point in time. Each alternative action is characterized by the cost of implementation. At the top of the tree, the expected return for the entire corresponding line is calculated. By backward calculation, the best alternative of actions can be determined.

The principle of applying the method can be illustrated by the following example (Fig. 12). The decision concerns the construction of a factory, which may have either a relatively large or low power. To select an alternative, the profit that can be obtained with a particular option is taken into account.

Fig.12. Application of the "decision tree" method.

Suppose the profit in branch A with high demand is 1.5 million rubles, then the expected profit, taking into account the probability of high demand, is: 1.5 million rubles. X 0.3 \u003d 450,000 rubles. The expected profit, taking into account the probability for branch B, is 200,000 rubles. X 0.7 \u003d 140,000 rubles. In the case of the construction of a large factory, branches A and B together give 590,000 rubles. Branches C and D during the construction of a small factory together provide 510,000 rubles. (1 million rubles X 0.3 + 300,000 X 0.7). Due to the larger expected profit, the decision should be made in favor of building a large factory.

A significant advantage of the method is that it encourages the manager to systematize the available solution alternatives. This is especially important for complex problem situations, as it provides a more structured and visual overall solution to the problem. If it is necessary to choose alternatives, the manager must work through the problem intensively, resulting in a better understanding of it.

One drawback of the method is that not all possible alternatives can be taken into account if it is required to ensure visibility and visibility of each step in decision making. Another disadvantage is the subjective assessment of the probability of occurrence of events.

4. Making a decision in difficult situations and the difficulties of its implementation.

4.1. Problems of unique choice.

Among the many sonorous names that our age deserved, where

more prosaic seems at first glance another name: the age of administration. However, only at first glance, since the size and influence of the administrative apparatus in industrialized countries is steadily growing, despite numerous decisions on staff cuts and reorganizations, despite the negative reaction of public opinion.

Each administrative body, existing for decades or newly organized, lives its own special life. Just as there are no two identical people, so there are no two identical administrative apparatuses: this is natural, since the functioning of administrative services essentially depends on the characters and talents of the people working in them. But, despite the outward dissimilarity, administrative activity is characterized by the same elements of administrative functions, which are determined by the following set of skills: predict, organize, dispose, coordinate, control. Decision-making (the ability to manage) is a central element of administrative activity, in relation to which all others can be considered as auxiliary. In what follows, by management decision-making we mean special kind human activity, aimed at choosing the best available alternatives. This definition points out three necessary elements of the selection process:

A problem that needs to be resolved;

The person or collective body making the decision;

Multiple alternatives to choose from.

In the absence of one of these elements, the selection process ceases to exist.

Let's make the following assumptions about the situation in which the decision maker (DM) is:

It has the right to choose from a multitude of alternatives;

Responsible for the decisions made;

Interested in making a choice, striving to solve an existing problem.

Although these assumptions may seem natural, they are not always fulfilled. There are times when external requirements, instructions

Higher organizations practically predetermine the actions of the leader, imposing on him the choice of certain alternatives. In other cases

the manager can be satisfied with the position when he actually

withdraws from making a decision - in this case, he has no motivation to solve the problem.

The choice conditions are affected by the novelty of the problem under consideration. If the same problem occurs more than once, then the leader develops typical methods for solving it. Over time, these methods can enter the regulatory documents that define the solution - in this case, the choice disappears. But there are unique problems of choice, when each time the choice appears in a completely different form. These can be new objects of choice for the manager (variants of unique projects), or the choice is made every time various conditions(development of long-term plans). This choice is the most difficult. It requires identifying the main factors influencing the future consequences of the decision, weighing all the pros and cons.

5. Practical part.

In connection with the crisis, part of the small business was on the verge of bankruptcy.

The management of the bank and the marketing service analyzed and proposed a product in the form of an overdraft facility. This is a step towards supporting and developing small businesses, which is also the policy of the Government of the Russian Federation, which can partially help small businesses survive in this difficult time.

The bank's management also analyzed the term deposit for corporate clients of BSZhV CJSC and decided to reduce the annual rate on the term deposit Etalon Business S to 7%, which also contributes to business development.

Readiness for change is a complex process in many respects, including psychological. As a rule, the need for them arises under the influence of the external environment, since the internal environment is more conservative and is not burdened by the achieved milestone of its development. Conventionally, the technology of change can be divided into stages: awareness of the need, the formation of a new view of the familiar reality among the team of the enterprise and its management, the implementation of changes. The economic crisis was an external factor for making strategic management decisions to support and develop small businesses.

The decision acts as a kind of boundary between the old and the new, a creative act that indicates the onset of change. They come to it as a result of the accumulation of a certain critical mass among workers who are thirsty for novelty, which makes it possible to make the desired a reality.

Banking products are the trend of the new, progressive.

The effectiveness of each management decision largely depends on the performance and correlation of the functions of the management decision both during its preparation and at the implementation stage. With this in mind, the managerial decision becomes a real tool for achieving the set goals, that is, not only the fact of making a decision is important, but also its implementation. This is evidenced by bank documents.

CONCLUSION.

The decision-making process is an integral part of the job responsibilities not only of the manager, but also of many employees of any level. However, for some specialists (such as, for example, a manager), decision-making is a permanent and very responsible job.

Making a decision is choosing an alternative; action to resolve a problem. One of the performance indicators of a manager is his ability to make the right decisions, i.e. choose the best alternatives.

In the proposed work, the forms and methods of decision-making are clearly considered. The complexity of determining the criteria for the rationality of managerial decisions is obvious. When making a decision, a manager almost inevitably acts on the basis of incomplete factual information, his own past experience and the ability to apply his personal qualities to achieve possible results. That is why there are no ideal solutions. But the specialist should strive to adopt the most correct, rational, profitable options. This is extremely important for everyone who wants to succeed not only in the field of management, but in any business.

BIBLIOGRAPHY.

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For the organization, both the mechanism for managing the process of solving problems and the executive mechanism for implementing solutions are important.

From the point of view of effective adaptation of the organization to the real conditions of functioning, an extremely important role belongs to the mechanism for managing the problem-solving process and, consequently, the decision-making process.

Let us consider in more detail the mechanism for managing the process of solving problems in an organization.

The functions of managing the process of solving the problems of the organization include primarily:

§ anticipation of problems,

§ identification of problems,

§ diagnostics,

§ systematization and classification of problems,

§ development of alternative solutions,

§ choice of the most preferred alternative solution (actual decision-making),

§ implementation of decisions made,

§ control over the implementation of decisions.

Foresight of problems involves the analysis of trends in the external and internal environment of the organization, the results of the organization's activities that have already been achieved and the achievement of which is only expected.

Much attention should be paid to the analysis of weaknesses and strengths, possible dangers and prospects that await the organization in the future.

Such an analysis is mandatory when developing projects and long-term plans for the development of an organization, is widely used in planning and is called a SWOT analysis - by the initial letters of its main components.

For a clearer idea of ​​the problems that the organization is likely to face in the future, it is necessary to use the apparatus of forecasting, and above all, expert forecasting. It is useful to develop the most probable scenarios for the development of the organization, as well as the external and internal conditions for its functioning.

It is advisable to rank the problems that are expected to occur in order of importance, paying attention first of all to the most important of them, which can have a significant impact on the functioning of the organization.

External problems may include problems that arise in connection with the development of international cooperation, with a change in the situation on the securities market, investment and tax policy of the state, with the introduction of new customs duties, the emergence of new manufacturing technologies or with a sharp change in the situation in the sales markets, that need to be anticipated and adapted as much as possible to them.

The problems of providing the functional divisions of the enterprise with the necessary resources, the desired level of profitability of production, the organization of effective interaction between functional divisions to solve the tasks facing the enterprise, etc. can be attributed to the number of internal ones.

Identification of problems involves a thorough analysis of the current activities of the organization. This analysis can be carried out by both passive and active methods.

Passive methods may include methods related to the analysis of information received by the organization or information directly related to the field of operation of the organization and obtained from external sources, in particular from special analytical reviews of the press, data banks, etc.

Among the active methods of identifying problems are, first of all, methods related to the use of the experience and knowledge of experts, specially collected information, purposefully conducted research.

The identified problems, as well as at the forecasting stage, should be ranked in order of importance. Of these, those that pose the greatest danger or open up fundamentally new opportunities for the development of the organization should be selected.

Once a problem has been identified, it must be diagnosed in order to determine its nature and specifics.

It is advisable to create data banks in which the identified problems can be registered. Such data banks can also store information about the decisions made in connection with the problems that have arisen, about the performers who are entrusted with a certain amount of work, about the progress in implementing the decisions made.

Next, it is necessary to discuss in detail the diagnosis of problems, their systematization and classification, the development of alternative solutions, the choice of the most preferable of them, the implementation and control over the implementation of solutions built using mixed (linear and integer) programming methods.

Since one of the main aspects of managing an organization is the distribution of resources, and the determination of the priority of solving the problems facing the organization is, in essence, the task of rational distribution of resources, it is advisable to consider the model for determining priority problems as a model for the optimal distribution of resources. , based on the comparative cost-effectiveness of orders and problems, respectively, performed or solved by the organization.

Let there be a list of P(n = 1, ..., n) orders that the organization can fulfill in the considered period of time, and T(m = 1, ..., T) problems that arise in the same period and require their solution.

Expected profit on order fulfillment i is equal to C i When solving a problem j additional profit can be made D j ,(if there is no additional profit in solving this problem, then D j = 0). If this problem is not solved, then the organization will suffer losses - Z j .

Denote by X i variable corresponding to order number i and taking values ​​from X i min before X i max- from the minimum possible level of order security i resource to the maximum extent possible.

Total View Resource k denote by Rk across R i , k - the amount of the resource of the species k required to complete the order i, and through R j , k - the amount of the resource of the species k, needed to solve the problem j.

Then the problem of optimal allocation of resources for the organization is formulated as follows:

under restrictions

Yj=1 if problem j decided by the organization

Yj=0 - otherwise.

It can be directly seen that the economic-mathematical model formulated above contains the task of determining both the priority orders for execution and the priority problems facing the organization in connection with their solution.

To get the first of the mentioned tasks, it is enough to set the values ​​of the variables Yj= 0, j = 1, ..., T. And to get the second task, it is enough to put the values ​​of the variables Х i = 0, i = 1, ..., P.

The solution of the first of the tasks will allow us to determine the priority orders that it is advisable for the organization to fulfill if it is assumed that the solution of emerging problems cannot be solved at the expense of the same resources.

The solution of the second task will allow to determine the priority problems that the organization needs to solve if the same resources cannot be required to fulfill orders.

The solution of the full problem formulated above will make it possible to determine the orders that must be fulfilled first of all in the presence of problems facing the organization, and the problems that must be fulfilled first of all if the organization has a flow of orders.

Thus, only a complete task corresponding to the economic-mathematical model formulated above will make it possible to answer the question of what orders and what problems need to be solved first of all with the resources at the disposal of the head of the organization.

We will not dwell on the methods for solving the problem formulated above. Those who wish to familiarize themselves with them can find them in any textbook that outlines methods for solving mathematical programming problems.

In particular, methods for solving problems of this type are well presented in the Decision Methods textbook used by the Association of Chartered Chartered Accountants in the UK.

Literature

1. Litvak B. G. Development of a management decision: Textbook. - 4th ed., Rev. - M .: Delo. 2003.

additional literature

1.. Balabanov I. T. Risk management. M.: Finance and statistics, 1996.

2. Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I.

3. Short E.M.

4. Short E.M.

5. Morse F.M., Kimbell J.E. Operations Research Methods M.: Sov. radio, 1956.

6. Larichev O. I.

7. Litvak B. G. Expert assessments and decision making. M.: Patent, 1996.

8. Meskon M. H. Albert M., Hedouri F.

9. Rumyantseva Z. P., Salomatin I. A., Akberdin R. Z. et al. Management of the organization: Proc. allowance. M.: Infra-M.. 1997.

10. Reilyan J.R.

11. Franchuk V.I.

12. Howard K., Short E.

13. Tsygichko V.I. decision-making leader. M.: Infra-M. 1996.

14. Shapiro V.D. and others. Project management. St. Petersburg: DvaTri, 1991

15. Addows M., Stansfield R.

test questions

1. What is the role of management decision in the management of the organization?

2. What determines the organization in human activity?

3. By what principles and features are organizations classified?

4. How are organizations classified according to the nature of their activities?

5. Give definitions of the organization.

6. Name the integral components of any organization.

7. What is the role of management in a modern organization?

8. What is the difference between professional and non-professional managers?

9. What is the organization model?

10. Give examples of organization models.

11. What types of organization management are found?

\12. Is it possible to entrust the decision-making to a computer?

13. How are modern technologies used in the development of management solutions?

14. What are the basic elements of models of the process of making managerial decisions.

15. What model is adequate for the situation of making a managerial decision?

16. What types of management process models do you know?

17. Give examples of decision rules. How are they used in the decision-making process?

18. What are the main management functions in the organization.

19. Why is it important to improve the technology of production and provision of services in a market economy?

20. What are the main activities of industrial organizations.

21. What are the main functions of managing the process of solving problems in an organization.

22. Give examples of external and internal problems of the organization.

23. Describe the active and passive methods of analyzing the activities of the organization.

25. Formulate an economic and mathematical model for the optimal distribution of resources in the organization.

26. How to determine the list of priority orders that must be fulfilled, and priority problems that must be solved by the organization?

Short E.M. Management concept. M.: DeKa, 1996.

Franchuk V.I. Fundamentals of modern organization theory. M.: Academy of Organizational Sciences, 1995

Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I. Management. M.: Gardarika Firm, 1996.,

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Short E.M. The program for the course "Development of management solutions". M.: IMPE, 1995.

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Meskon M. H. Albert M., Hedouri F. Fundamentals of management. M.: Delo, 1998.

Franchuk V.I. Fundamentals of modern organization theory. M.: Academy of Organizational Sciences, 1995.

Reilyan J.R. Analytical basis for making managerial decisions. M.: Finance and statistics, 1989.

Reilyan J.R. Analytical basis for making managerial decisions. M.: Finance and statistics, 1989.

Litvak B. G. Expert assessments and decision making. M.: Patent, 1996,

Reilyan J.R. Analytical basis for making managerial decisions. M.: Finance and statistics, 1989.

Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I. Management. M.: Firma Gardarika, 1996.

Vikhansky O.S., Naumov A.I. Management. M.: Firma Gardarika, 1996.

Franchuk V.I. Fundamentals of modern organization theory. M.: Academy of Organizational Sciences, 1995.

Addows M., Stansfield R. Decision-making methods. M.: Audit, UNITI, 1997.

The beginning of the intensive development of the theory of managerial decision-making as a scientific discipline can be considered the 40s of the XX century, when during the Second World War in England a group of scientists was instructed to solve problems.

some complex management problems, such as the optimal placement of civil defense facilities, firing positions, optimization of the penetration depth of anti-submarine bombs and the convoy of transport caravans.

In the 1950s and 1960s, the existing system of management decision-making methods was rethought and formulated in the form of specially emerging scientific disciplines, such as operations research, system analysis, technical systems management, etc. These sciences operate mainly with quantitative data, criteria and ratings. In subsequent years, the main attention began to be paid to the mathematical (quantitative) aspects of solving managerial problems, using observation, hypothesis formulation, and modeling as methods. Physical, simulation, mathematical models were widely used. For example, models of queuing theory, or optimal service, models of inventory management, linear programming, economic analysis, etc. are very well known. However, many aspects of management do not fall under the methods of quantitative analysis. Many problems can be solved only with the use of qualitative (non-quantitative) analysis methods. Such methods exist and are successfully used in decision theory. They allow obtaining and analyzing qualitative (non-quantitative) information. These are methods of expert evaluation, single-criteria analysis, content analysis of situations, etc.

modern science in the field of managerial decision-making has risen to a qualitatively new level. Currently, effective management technologies have been developed that are characteristic of modern organizations. Computer technology is used that is capable of handling a large amount of quantitative and qualitative information; computer decision support systems and automated expert evaluation systems have been created. They are used in the decision-making process and allow you to make effective solutions in difficult situations.

In management practice, models of the decision-making process are widely used. Modeling the decision-making process itself makes it possible to take a significant step towards quantitative assessments of the results of decisions made. At the same time, the role of qualitative (non-quantitative) analysis is not diminished.

The use of simulation of the process of making managerial decisions makes it possible to raise it to a qualitatively new level, to develop and introduce modern technologies into the practice of making managerial decisions.

The professional use of decision-making models allows the manager to control intuitive considerations in decision-making, in particular to provide greater degree consistency and reliability of managerial decisions. It should be understood that the model allows finding a rational solution only for a simplified version of the decision-making situation. Therefore, the act of making a decision cannot be shifted only to the models of the situation embedded in the computer and the alternative options for managerial decisions obtained with their help. They are only advisory in nature and contribute to the development of an effective management decision.

The solution found by modeling the decision-making situation must be analyzed in terms of the completeness of the factors taken into account in it and, if necessary, make adjustments or refine the model used accordingly.

When making particularly important decisions, several models can be used that describe the decision-making situation from different angles.

The final decision is made on the basis of a comparison of the results obtained using various models situations.

At the final stage, the art of decision-making becomes crucial.

When modeling the decision-making process, one must have a clear idea of ​​the basic elements of such models:

decision making situation;

Time to make a decision;

Resources needed to make a decision;

The resources available to the organization;

Controlled factors system;

System of uncontrollable factors;

The system of links between controllable and uncontrollable factors;

Alternative solutions;

A system of criteria (evaluation system) for evaluating the results of decisions made.

It is important that the model used in the process of making a managerial decision be adequate to the decision-making situation. This means that the model must:

Correspond to the structure and properties of the control object;

Features and possibilities of creating the used modeling methods and experiments conducted on the basis of the used models;

Comply with the requirements of the management task being solved.

Models of the management process differ from each other. But no model can take into account absolutely all factors. However, a professionally developed model differs in that it allows you to take into account the most significant of them.

Let us present an economic-mathematical model for choosing the primary (priority) problems facing the organization for their primary solution, built using the methods of mixed linear and integer programming.

Since one of the main aspects of managing an organization is the distribution of resources, and the determination of the priority of solving the problems facing the organization is essentially the task of rational distribution of resources, it is advisable to consider the model for determining priority problems as a model for the optimal distribution of resources, based on the comparative economic efficiency of orders and problems, respectively, performed or solved by the organization.

Let there be a list of n (i=l,…, n) orders that the organization can fulfill in the period under consideration, and m (j=1,…, m) problems that arise during the period under consideration and require their solution.

The expected profit in the execution of the i-ro order is equal to C i . When solving the j-th problem, additional profit D j can be obtained (if there is no additional profit when solving this problem, then D. = 0). If this problem is not solved, then the organization will suffer losses. – Z j .

Let's denote by X i -variable corresponding to the order with number i and taking values ​​from X i min to X I max - from the minimum possible level of providing the i-th order with a resource to the maximum possible.

The total resource of the kth type will be denoted by R k . We denote by R ik the amount of resource of the kth type required to fulfill the i-ro order, and by R jk - the amount of resource of the k-th type required to solve the j-th problem.

Then the problem of optimal allocation of resources for the organization is formulated as follows:

under restrictions

X i max > X i > X i min

Y j = 1 if the j-th problem is solved by the organization, 0 otherwise.

It can be directly verified that the economic-mathematical model formulated above contains both the task of determining priority orders for execution and the task of determining the priority problems facing the organization in order to solve them.

To obtain the first of the mentioned problems, it suffices to set the values ​​of the variables Y = 0, j = 1, m. And to get the second problem, it is enough to set the values ​​of the variables X. = 0, i = 1, n.

The solution of the first of the tasks will allow us to determine the priority orders that it is advisable for the organization to fulfill if it is assumed that the solution of emerging problems cannot be solved at the expense of the same resources.

The solution of the second task will allow to determine the priority problems that the organization needs to solve if the same resources cannot be required to fulfill orders.

The solution of the full problem formulated above will allow to determine the orders that need to be completed in the first place in the presence of problems facing the organization, and the problems that must be completed in the first place if the organization has a flow of orders.

Thus, only a complete task corresponding to the economic-mathematical model formulated above will make it possible to answer the question of what orders and what problems need to be addressed first of all with the resources available to the head of the organization.

The method of experimentation is getting more and more recognition among managers. In Russia, economic reforms are being carried out, and many managerial innovations require experimental verification. With the help of experiments, the search for evidence-based innovations that will be useful for solving the goals and objectives of the organization is also being conducted. The value of managerial experimentation lies not only in its practical focus on solving management problems, but also in the fact that it serves as a source of new ideas, hypotheses, theoretical positions, i.e. allows a comprehensive approach to the study of problems of theory and practice of management.

Experiment (from lat. experimentum - test, experience) is one of the main methods of scientific knowledge. The experiment involves active intervention in the situation on the part of the researcher, who systematically changes one or more factors and registers changes in the object under study. With the help of the experiment, certain hypotheses, innovations and changes in the enterprise management system are tested. Management science has accumulated extensive experience in conducting experiments. When conducting an experiment, it is necessary to ensure compliance with the following principles:

Purposeful, meaning that the experiment is carried out for a specific purpose. This goal should be scientifically substantiated and specifically formulated. Otherwise, it is not clear why the experiment is carried out;

"purity" of the experiment, i.e., the experiment should be set up in such a way that the influence of conditions and factors that distort its course and results is neutralized;

A clear establishment of the experiment zone (its boundaries). The researcher must clearly understand the place of the experiment, its time frame, the number and composition of participants.

The experiment on managerial innovations should have the following types of support1:

Scientific and methodological support, consisting of justifying the need for an experiment, formulating its goals, objectives and content, developing hypotheses, ideas, theoretical provisions that require experimental verification, developing principles and conditions for conducting, etc.;

Organizational support, which provides for the need to select objects for experimentation and control, develop instructional materials on the procedure for conducting the experiment, its timing, procedures, participants, distribution of responsibility between them, etc.;

Methodological support, i.e. development of a set of methodological materials on all aspects of the ongoing experiment as part of the stages of preparation, conduct, analysis, evaluation of results, decision-making;

Personnel and social security, which provides for special training of personnel for participation in the experiment and the involvement of specialists from other profiles to ensure complexity, as well as holding instructive and explanatory meetings with the participants in the experiment;

Information and management support, which gives a clear idea of ​​the volume and content of the necessary information, the possibilities of mechanization and automation of information procedures, as well as the process of managing the experiment;

Economic support, which includes determining the terms of financing and the necessary resources by type, as well as developing incentives for participants in the experiment.

There are three possible outcomes of the management experiment:

1. Management decision to accept or negatively evaluate the innovation being tested.

2. Formulation, scientific and practical substantiation of new theoretical and methodological provisions of management science.

3. Development of a system of scientific management methods, increasing their scientific validity.

All methods that exist within the framework of decision theory are used to increase the ability of management to make reasonable objective decisions.

decisions in complex management situations and thereby improve the efficiency of the organization.

KEY TERMS AND CONCEPTS

Modeling-study of phenomena, processes by building and studying their models; using models to determine the behavior and characteristics of real events.

Model- a copy, or an analogue of the studied phenomenon, process, reflecting the essential properties of the modeled object from the point of view of the study.

Unprogrammed decision- a choice that is made in a new or uncertain situation with unknown factors of influence.

Restrictions– conditions taken into account when solving a managerial problem. They define the domain of possible solutions, in which there are feasible and optimal solutions.

Problem is a complex issue, a task requiring clarification, study, evaluation and resolution.

Solution- understanding problems and choosing an alternative, a course of action to solve the problem.

Experiment- a method of scientific knowledge, involving active intervention in the situation, changing all factors and noting changes in the object under study.

CONTROL QUESTIONS AND TASKS

1. What is the role of management decision in the management of the organization?

2. What types of management decisions are distinguished?

3. What are the differences between programmed and non-programmed solutions?

4. What are the differences between judgmental decisions and rational decisions?

5. Describe the steps involved in rational problem solving.

6. List the requirements for a management decision.

7. What are the components of the effectiveness of the decision.

8. Can a computer be entrusted with making managerial decisions?

9. How are modern technologies used in the development of management solutions?

10. Accept correct solution:

a) as a manager large enterprise, which has a monopoly position in the field of soft drinks,

give arguments against the adoption of antitrust laws;

b) as head of the commission on antimonopoly regulation

make a case for enacting an antitrust

legislation;

c) As a consumer of the product, which side would you take in an opinion poll?

a) economies of scale in production, streamlined actions, the ability to control decisions made;

b) inflated prices, disruption of access to information, slowing down the introduction of innovations;

c) decide for yourself.

LITERATURE

Abchuk V.A. Lectures on Management: Solution. Foresight. Risk. - St. Petersburg: Soyuz, 1999.

Kardanskaya N.L. Fundamentals of managerial decision-making. - M.: Rus. business literature, 1998.

Ladanov I.D. Practical management. - M.: Nika, 1992.

So, how should the leader, the first person of the enterprise, use his power more wisely, especially if this enterprise is a private company? Management theory gives clear, unambiguous recommendations: the manager must take all organizational and administrative power into his own hands and delegate a significant part of his powers to experienced deputies, experts in their field. And at the same time, do not interfere with their work with petty guardianship, constant monitoring, if they are basically successfully fulfilling their official duties. "It's not broken - don't fix it!", and if you remember the Hippocratic oath, then "Do no harm!" And only in case of a clear threat of disruption of the planned work or an obvious inconsistency of the performer with the position held, the manager is obliged to actively intervene in the work of the lagging structural unit, using full power up to replacing the performer.

Such an extremely rare situation is possible when all structural divisions work without failures, plans are fulfilled, a clear system of logistics is established, the work of the team is reasonably motivated and the leader remains, as it were, without work (as a well-played orchestra can play without a conductor after many rehearsals). In this case, the leader is a real talent, an excellent organizer! And all the same, it will not remain idle, it is necessary to solve long-term, strategic tasks, establish new production relations, work on further improvement of the production organism, issues of enterprise development. Good management is based on the reconciliation of centralization and decentralization.

There remains one more, very significant question: how many subordinates can and should be had, what is the standard of manageability of a leader? In a painful, difficult way, humanity has come to understand that an overestimated norm of controllability can lead to a loss of control and disorganization of the enterprise.

The managerial standard depends on several factors:

type of production (serial, small-scale, individual), its complexity and responsibility;

the equipment of the manager's work with technical means of control (a personal computer and an information database created on its basis, the effectiveness of existing communication links, etc.);

the leader's place in the hierarchical structure, which determines the complexity of the problems being solved, the measure of his responsibility and, of course, the strength of the emotional load;

knowledge and experience of the leader (the art of management!).

The usual rate of manageability ranges from three to seven directly subordinate to the head of the performers.

This concerns the need to improve the organizational structure of the enterprise, since a suboptimal management structure is the most common flaw in the production activities of many teams. The organizational structure should reflect the long-term program and the set of the main goals of the organization, since the achievement of goals is the basis of joint activities. And finally, the structure must respond to changes in the external and internal environment. The organizational structure is effective only when it contributes to the achievement of the goals set by the team at the minimum cost of labor and resources. It is important to note that the achievement of goals is not only an effective solution of production problems and, as a result, fair remuneration, but also other ways of motivation: involvement in solving problems, prestige of work and confidence in career growth. The search for the optimal structure for a given time is often accompanied by serious mistakes: exceeding the norm of manageability of executives, an incorrectly chosen management style, attempts to achieve savings by combining structural units with similar profiles (a single office or a joint bureau of copying equipment, etc.).

2.4. The principle of delegation of authority.

Delegation principle It consists in the transfer by the head of a part of the powers, rights and responsibilities entrusted to him to his competent employees. The main practical value of the principle is that the manager frees his time from less complex daily affairs, routine operations and can concentrate his efforts on solving problems of a more complex managerial level; at the same time, which is very important for the leader, compliance with the norm of manageability is ensured. At the same time, this method is a purposeful form of staff development, contributes to the motivation of their work, the manifestation of initiative and independence.

The main task of the manager is not to do the work himself, but to ensure the organization of the labor process by the forces of the team, to take responsibility and use power to achieve the goal. To build relations between the boss and subordinates on cunning, deceit or flattery is immoral and hopelessly wrong. People, with all their individual differences, behave predictably in a normal, regular situation - if the team knows its tasks and understands the methods used by the leader to achieve the goal with minimal difficulties, then you can confidently count on the support of the majority and find performers who can trust independent solution of local and sometimes multifunctional tasks. Such an employee, singled out from the team for his undoubted organizational skills and professional knowledge, is well aware of the benefits of the trust placed in him, is proud of the awareness of his significance and will try to justify the trust placed in him. Delegation of authority is possible and expedient if the leader has prepared worthy performers, trusts them and can skillfully manage them.

Rice. 3. Hierarchical pyramid

The hierarchical pyramid (Fig. 3) illustrates the subordination of performers to their leaders up to the highest. In the figure: P - head, 3 - deputies, BUT - heads of departments, WG - group leaders, 1I-4I - performers.

Methods for solving production and organizational problems are always multivariate, and if a subordinate uses his own, independent, yet, perhaps, non-optimal decision tactics, then this is another positive feature of the principle of delegation of authority - the performer goes through a good and absolutely necessary school of managerial development, learns to be independent. The performer asserts himself, his self-confidence and initiative grow. At the same time, it is important to remember that the performer has the right to make a mistake, and in this case, the manager is obliged to provide him with all possible assistance in the most tactful manner. After all, one of the main tasks of a leader is to develop the abilities and skills of a subordinate.

A particularly delicate aspect of this principle is the organization of control over the actions of subordinates. Petty guardianship will not give anything but harm (violation of the principle of least impact!), The lack of control can lead to disruption of work and anarchy. The solution to the problem of control lies in well-established feedback, in the free exchange of information between colleagues and, of course, in a sufficiently high authority and managerial skill of the leader. By the way, an experienced high-level official, wishing to form an objective opinion about the quality of the leader's work, is always interested in how his subordinates work (this characterizes the leader very well).

However, there is a set of managerial tasks, the solution of which should be left to the head. This is primarily the definition of goals, policies of the organization and the adoption of fundamental decisions. The duty of the first person to assume the performance of tasks with a high degree of risk, of a particularly confidential nature and all unusual ones that go beyond the established regulations and traditions of the operation. Considering situations where a managerial decision can cause irreversible consequences, it is appropriate to draw a comparison between the responsibility of a general practitioner and a surgeon. The therapist can more easily entrust the treatment of the patient to his junior colleague, since at any moment he can join the treatment process, but the surgeon, with great care and caution, decides to entrust the operation to his student.

The importance of the principle of delegation of authority especially grows in the conditions of dominance of economic methods of management, the implementation of which is practically impossible without the independence and creative initiative of the performers. This principle once again confirms the validity of the well-known formula: "Never do yourself what your subordinates can do, except in those cases when a person's life is at stake."

3. Methods for making managerial decisions.

All decision-making methods can be combined into three groups (Fig. 4).

Decision-making methods

informal

(heuristic)

Collective

quantitative

Rice. 4. Classification of methods for making managerial decisions.

Informal (heuristic) decision-making methods are based on the analytical abilities of decision makers. This is a theoretical comparison of alternatives based on experience. For the most part, such methods are based on the manager's intuition. Their advantage is that decisions are made promptly; intuition can sometimes fail.

Highlight in collective methods- this is the definition of the circle of persons participating in this procedure. Most often, this is a temporary team, which includes, as a candidate, both leaders and performers. The main criteria for the formation of a group are competence, the ability to solve creative problems, constructive thinking and communication skills. Collective forms of group work can be different. Let's consider them further.

At the core quantitative methods lies the scientific and practical approach, which involves the choice of optimal solutions by processing (with the help of computers and EMMs) large amounts of information.

Depending on the type of mathematical functions underlying the models, there are:

a) linear modeling - linear dependencies are used;

b) dynamic programming - the introduction of additional variables in the process of solving problems;

c) probabilistic and statistical models - are implemented in the methods of queuing theory;

d) game theory - modeling of such situations, decision-making in which should take into account the discrepancy between the interests of various departments;

e) simulation models - allow you to experimentally verify the implementation of solutions, change the initial prerequisites, clarify the requirements for them.

Methods are concrete ways in which a problem can be solved.

2. Diagnostics - search for the most important details in the problem, which are solved in the first place (used with limited resources);

3. Expert assessments - any ideas are formed, considered, evaluated, compared;

4. Delphi method - experts who do not know each other are given questions related to solving the problem, the opinion of the minority of experts is brought to the opinion of the majority. The majority must either agree with this decision or refute it. If the majority disagrees, then their arguments are passed to the minority and analyzed there. This process is repeated until all the experts come to the same opinion, or move on to the fact that groups stand out that do not change their decision. This method is used to achieve efficiency;

5. Non-specialist method - the issue is solved by persons who have never dealt with this problem, but are specialists in related fields.