The uncertainty inherent in the economic system means that every economic agent must act to reduce the uncertainty and the likelihood of danger. And sometimes you have to act at random and with great risk.
Risk refers to the course of action associated with danger in order to avoid even greater danger.
When the danger is measurable (logical or mathematical), the risk is reduced. Thus, risk is a method of action of an economic entity in conditions of uncertainty and unpredictability of events, aimed at meeting needs.
Risk acts as a relationship between the conscious purposeful activity of a person and the circumstances in which he acts. In addition, risk reflects a certain set of socio-economic ties, relationships, actions that arise in society as a result of the perception of danger, people's assessments of it and the need to act to reduce the danger or its negative consequences.
Classification signs of risks according to
various criteria:
- causes of occurrence (subjective, objective);
– functional types and areas (financial, industrial, commercial, etc.);
- scale (local, sectoral, regional, national);
- the sphere of origin (external, internal);
– opportunities for diversification (systematic, specific);
– degree of acceptability (minimum, increased, critical, unacceptable).
Depending on the result, the risks are divided into two groups:
1. pure risks, meaning the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result (natural-climatic, political, commercial);
2. speculative risks, expressing the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results (financial, investment, innovative).
Risk analysis consists of two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative risk analysis serves to identify factors and potential areas of risk. Quantitative risk analysis is a numerical determination of the size of the risk and its consequences.
Risk Management Methods
– risk prevention;
– avoidance of risk;
– impact on the source of risk;
- reduction of time spent in hazardous areas;
– risk acceptance;
– reduction of dangerous behavior;
– reduction of potential losses;
– reduction of actual losses;
– distribution of risk over various agents;
– downscaling of risk;
– insurance risk transfer;
– non-insurance risk transfer;
- financial engineering.
Risk prevention consists in studying each type of risk in advance and taking measures to prevent events that cause risk and loss.
Risk avoidance implies avoiding activities that can produce risks on a large scale.
Reducing the time spent in dangerous areas is achieved by reducing routes, access control, speeding up transactions, etc.
The reduction in the amount of actual losses is ensured by activities to eliminate the consequences of risks.
Risk downscaling is diversification as the division of risk over time or stages.
Control questions to THEME 3.4.
1. What is meant by “risk” in the system economic security?
2. What risks are related to the "scale" criterion?
3. How do “pure” risks differ from “speculative” ones?
4. Name three methods of risk management
5. What is risk “avoidance”?
TOPIC 3.5. SOCIAL SECURITY OF THE STATE
The current situation in Russian society actualizes the problem social security as a conceptual basis for socio-economic programs of federal and regional development.
The determining factors in the development of the world economy and national economies become human potential, social capital, scientific knowledge.
The social security of the state is based on the analysis of the existing needs of society, the degree of their satisfaction, the forecast of development, as well as their orientation towards the contribution to the achievement of the most important final socio-economic goals of the development of the national economy. In this regard, the criterion of economic and social security is the increase in the ability of the national economy to meet the complex of its socio-economic needs within the framework of an unbalanced balance of conflicting economic interests of households, firms, and the state.
Social security, along with economic security, plays a key role in the system national security, because it ensures the maintenance of a conflict-free state in society.
Social security implies the protection of citizens from internal and external threats at the level of their personal interests and needs. The social security of the state has a complex structure, the main elements of which are:
– stability and stability of the system social protection;
– social independence of the state in the structure of international relations;
– the ability of the system of social guarantees to self-regulate, develop and improve.
Control questions to THEME 3.5.
1. What is the general criterion for the economic and social security of the state
2. What is the main role of social security in the country's national security system.
TOPIC 3.6. ASSESSMENT OF THE LEVEL OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SECURITY
The needs of the socio-economic development of society, monitoring the achievement of security goals and managing this process require the development of appropriate indicators, threshold values and indicators of economic security. Comprehensive assessment economic security plays a key role in diagnosing the state of the national economy and opens up opportunities for correcting this state through the development of appropriate programs.
The formation of a system for assessing the level of economic security should be based on methodological principles, such as:
1. economic security is a complex, contradictory sociosystem characterized by a variety of properties and forms of manifestation, therefore its comprehensive quantitative assessment can only be given through a system of indicators;
2. this system should reflect the relevant qualitative characteristics, which must be considered as a system of complementary, and not mutually exclusive parameters;
3. it is expedient to include in the system of indicators of economic security a group of social standards that characterize the socially safe level of the economy;
4. special attention requires an institutional block of indicators
economic security.
The system of indicators of economic security contains three groups of indicators that differ in the nature of the target orientation.
First group:
indicators - the driving force (change in population on the planet or in a given country, the economic capacity of the ecosystem).
Second group:
indicators - state (general economic and social indicators).
Third group:
indicators - response (institutional indicators).
Characteristics of indicators:
– general economic (GDP per capita, production
industrial and agricultural products, the level of labor productivity, the volume of internal and external debt, the state budget deficit, the balance of foreign economic exchanges, etc.);
– social (share of people with incomes below the subsistence level, stock coefficient, unemployment rate, share of social spending in GDP, etc.).
The main methods for assessing and measuring the level of economic security:
Scenario analysis and processing method,
method of expert assessments,
The optimization method
game-theoretic methods,
the method of the theory of fuzzy systems, etc.).
The methodology for assessing the level of economic security is based on the calculation of weighted averages for each group of indicators (taking into account the ranking of countries according to the World Bank methodology: highly developed, medium developed, underdeveloped).
The essence of the methodology lies in the fact that the values of the parameters for a particular country are determined and indicators are distinguished: “leading”, “coinciding”, “lagging behind” in relation to
to the global average.
The results obtained are combined into groups with different levels of deviations from the standard:
I-th group combines indicators with deviations from the world average values from 0 to 10% (acceptable level of safety);
Group II combines indicators that have deviations from the world average values from 10 to 25% (critical situation);
Group III combines indicators with deviations from 25 to 50%
(economic crisis);
Group IV - indicators with deviations of values over 50%
(economic disaster).
Calculation of the "index of economic security". The index is composite, reflecting harmonious development socio-economic system, encompasses social, economic and environmental components (the pace of sustainable economic development, the level of competitiveness of the economy, the level of quality of life).
Control questions to THEME 3.6.
1. List the groups of indicators characterizing economic security
2. What methods are used to assess and measure the level of economic security?
3. What is the deviation of the indicators (in %) from the world average values characterizes the "economic crisis"?
TOPIC 3.7. MECHANISM FOR ENSURING ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SECURITY
Economic security in the system of its connections and relations in the national economy is influenced by the conditions and factors inherent in its essence (endogenous), as well as various manifestations of the external environment (exogenous) that are in the relationship of the macro- and mega-environment.
Conditions that determine economic security:
· the level of development of productive forces (the nature of the social division of labor, the dominant technological order);
The nature of the production relations of the national economy system (types and forms of property relations, the nature and mechanism of social reproduction, the method of coordination and institutionalization economic activity);
natural conditions (cosmic cataclysms, natural disasters, climate change, depletion of resources, etc.).
1. The concept of economic security and the activities of the organization to ensure it (SURS)
2. Place and role of economic risk in ensuring the economic security of the organization (SURS).
3. Classification of economic risks.
4. Risk indicators and methods for its assessment.
5. Management of economic risk in modern economic conditions, methods of its reduction.
3. Classification of economic risks.
Risk is an objectively inevitable element of making any economic decision due to the fact that uncertainty is an inevitable characteristic of business conditions.
The category "risk" can be defined as the danger of a potentially possible, probable loss of resources or shortfall in income compared to the option, which is designed for the rational use of resources in this type of entrepreneurial activity. In other words, risk is the threat that the entrepreneur will incur losses in the form of additional expenses or receive income below those he expected.
Entrepreneurial refers to the risk that arises from any type of entrepreneurial activity associated with the production of products, goods and services, their sale; commodity-money and financial transactions, commerce, as well as the implementation of scientific and technical projects.
The economic literature highlights the following risk functions : innovative, regulatory, protective and analytical.
There are risks:
risk associated with economic activity;
the risk associated with the personality of the entrepreneur;
risk associated with a lack of information about the state of the external environment.
According to the sphere of occurrence, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into external and internal . To external include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the entrepreneur. We are talking about unforeseen changes in the legislation regulating entrepreneurial activity; instability of the political regime in the country of operation and other situations, and, accordingly, the losses of entrepreneurs resulting from the outbreak of war, nationalization, strikes, embargoes.
source domestic risk is the entrepreneurial firm itself. These risks arise in the case of ineffective management, erroneous marketing policies, and also as a result of intra-company abuse. The main among internal risks are personnel risks associated with the professional level and character traits of employees of an entrepreneurial firm.
In modern business conditions, there are two types of entrepreneurial risk according to the level of decision-making: macroeconomic (global) risk and risk at the level of individual firms (local).
From the point of view of duration in time, entrepreneurial risks can be divided into short term and permanent . The short-term group includes those risks that threaten the entrepreneur for a finite known period of time, for example, a transport risk, when losses may occur during the transportation of goods, or the risk of non-payment for a specific transaction.
Permanent risks are those that continuously threaten businesses in a given geographic area or industry, such as the risk of non-payment in a country with an imperfect legal system, or the risk of building collapse in an area with high seismic hazard.
Since the main task of the entrepreneur is to take risks prudently, without crossing the line beyond which the bankruptcy of the company is possible, it is necessary to single out tolerable, critical and catastrophic risks .
According to the degree of legitimacy of entrepreneurial risk, the following can be distinguished: justified (lawful) and unjustified (illegal) risks .
All business risks can also be divided into two large groups in accordance with the possibility of insurance: insured and uninsured .
Insurance risk is a probable event or set of events against which insurance is carried out. Depending on the source of danger, insurance risks are divided into two groups:
risks associated with the manifestation of the elemental forces of nature ( weather, earthquakes, floods, etc.);
risks associated with purposeful human actions.
Risks worth insuring include:
probable losses as a result of fires and other natural disasters;
probable losses as a result of car accidents;
probable losses as a result of damage or destruction of products during transportation;
probable losses as a result of errors of the company's employees;
probable losses as a result of the transfer of commercial information by employees of the company to competitors;
probable losses as a result of non-fulfillment of obligations by subcontractors;
probable losses as a result of the suspension of business activity of the company;
probable losses as a result of possible death or illness of the head or leading employee of the company;
probable losses as a result possible disease, death or accident with an employee of the firm.
Two more large groups of risks should be distinguished: statistical (simple) and dynamic (speculative) . The peculiarity of statistical risks lies in the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. At the same time, losses for an entrepreneurial firm, as a rule, mean losses for society as a whole.
According to the cause of losses, statistical risks can be further subdivided into the following groups:
probable losses as a result negative effect on company assets natural Disasters(fire, water, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc.);
probable losses as a result of criminal actions;
probable losses due to the adoption of unfavorable legislation for the entrepreneurial firm;
probable losses as a result of a threat to the property of third parties, which leads to the forced termination of the activities of the main supplier or consumer;
losses due to the death or incapacity of key employees of the firm or the main owner of the entrepreneurial firm.
Unlike statistical risk, dynamic risk carries either a loss or a profit for an entrepreneurial firm. Therefore, they can be called "speculative". In addition, dynamic risks leading to losses for an individual firm can simultaneously bring benefits to society as a whole. Therefore, dynamic risks are difficult to manage.
In addition, it is worth highlighting:
political risk;
production risk;
commercial risk;
financial risk;
technical risk;
industry risk;
innovation risk.
Political risks can be divided into four groups:
the risk of nationalization and expropriation without adequate compensation;
transfer risk associated with possible restrictions on the conversion of local currency;
the risk of termination of the contract due to the actions of the authorities of the country in which the counterparty company is located;
the risk of hostilities and civil unrest.
The main causes of production risk include:
decrease in the planned volumes of production and sales of products due to a decrease in labor productivity, equipment downtime, loss of working time, lack of required amount raw materials, increased percentage of defective products;
price reduction;
increase in material costs;
growth of the wage fund by exceeding the target number or by paying a higher than planned level wages individual employees;
an increase in tax payments and other deductions as a result of a change in the tax rate in an unfavorable direction for an entrepreneurial firm;
low discipline of deliveries, interruptions in fuel and electricity;
physical and moral depreciation of the equipment of domestic enterprises.
The main reasons for commercial risk:
decrease in sales volumes as a result of a fall in demand or demand for goods;
increase in the purchase price of goods in the process of implementing an entrepreneurial project;
an unforeseen decrease in the volume of purchases in comparison with the planned ones, which reduces the scale of the entire operation and increases the cost per unit of volume of goods sold (due to conditionally fixed costs);
loss of goods;
loss of quality of goods in the process of circulation (transportation, storage), which leads to a decrease in its price;
an increase in distribution costs in comparison with those planned as a result of the payment of fines, unforeseen duties and deductions, which leads to a decrease in the profits of an entrepreneurial firm.
Commercial risk includes:
the risk associated with the sale of goods (services) on the market;
the risk associated with the transportation of goods (transport);
the risk associated with the acceptance of goods (services) by the buyer;
the risk associated with the solvency of the buyer;
risk of force majeure.
Separately, it is necessary to highlight the transport risk. Currently, various transport risks are classified by degree and by responsibility in four groups: E, F, C, D.
Technical risks include:
probability of losses due to negative results of scientific research;
the probability of losses as a result of failure to achieve the planned technical parameters in the course of design and technological developments;
the probability of losses as a result of low technological capabilities of production, which does not allow mastering the results of new developments;
the probability of losses as a result of the occurrence of side or delayed manifestations of problems when using new technologies and products;
the probability of losses due to equipment failures and breakdowns, etc.
Financial risk includes:
currency risk: economic risk; transfer risk; transaction risk;
credit risk: property, moral and business;
investment risk (table 1).
Table 1 Main types of investment risk
|
Type of risk |
Definition |
in Belarus* |
|
Capital |
Total risk for all investments, the risk that the investor will not be able to release the invested funds without incurring a loss | |
|
Selective |
The risk of choosing the wrong object for investment in comparison with other options | |
|
Percentage |
The risk of losses that investors may incur due to changes in interest rates in the market | |
|
Country |
Investment risk Money to enterprises under the jurisdiction of a country with an unstable social and economic situation | |
|
Operating |
The risk of losses arising from malfunctions in the operation of computer systems for processing information related to investing funds | |
|
Temporal |
The risk of investing at the wrong time, which inevitably entails losses | |
|
Legislative changes |
Losses from unforeseen legislative regulation | |
|
liquidity |
The risk associated with the possibility of losses in the sale of a security due to a change in the assessment of its quality | |
|
Inflationary |
When inflation is high, returns on investment depreciate faster than they rise |
* Expert assessment on a 10-point scale, increased risk from 1 to 10.
This classification is rather conditional, since it is difficult to draw a hard line between individual types of risks. Many risks are interconnected, and changes in one of them cause changes in the other, but all of them ultimately affect the performance of an entrepreneurial firm and require accounting for the successful operation of this firm.
Essence, types and role of risks in the system of economic security.
Risk assessment.
Risk management methods.
In studying the first question, understand that the inherent uncertainty of an economic system means that every economic agent must act to reduce the uncertainty and the likelihood of danger occurring.
And sometimes you have to act at random and with great risk. Risk refers to the course of action associated with danger in order to avoid even greater danger. When the danger is measurable (logical or mathematical), the risk is reduced. Thus, risk is a method of action of an economic entity in conditions of uncertainty and unpredictability of events, aimed at meeting needs.
Please note that risk acts as a relationship between a person's conscious purposeful activity and the circumstances in which he acts. In addition, risk reflects a certain set of socio-economic ties, relationships, actions that arise in society as a result of the perception of danger, people's assessments of it and the need to act to reduce the danger or its negative consequences.
Expand the essence of risk as an economic category that expresses the diverse socio-economic relations that arise between people, between man and nature, between man and society in the process of producing one's life under conditions of uncertainty.
Next, consider the classification of risks, which is the combination of risks into specific groups according to certain characteristics. Scientifically based risk classification allows you to determine the place of risk in common system and creates an opportunity for effective application methods and techniques of risk management.
causes of occurrence (subjective, objective);
functional types and areas (financial, industrial, commercial, etc.);
scale (local, sectoral, regional, national);
sphere of origin (external, internal);
diversification opportunities (systematic, specific);
degree of admissibility (minimum, increased, critical, unacceptable).
In the conclusion of the first question, understand that, depending on the result, the risks are divided into two groups:
pure risks, meaning the possibility of obtaining a negative or zero result (natural-climatic, political, commercial);
speculative risks expressing the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results (financial, investment, innovative).
In the second question, study the methods of risk analysis and assessment. Risk analysis consists of two mutually complementary types: qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative risk analysis serves to identify factors and potential areas of risk. Quantitative risk analysis is a numerical determination of the size of the risk and its consequences.
In the third question, explore risk management practices, which include:
risk prevention;
avoidance of risk;
impact on the source of risk;
reduction of time spent in hazardous areas;
risk acceptance;
reducing risky behavior;
reduction of potential losses;
reduction of actual losses;
distribution of risk among different agents;
unbundling of risk;
insurance risk transfer;
non-insurance risk transfer;
financial engineering.
Risk prevention consists in studying each type of risk in advance and taking measures to prevent events that cause risk and loss.
Risk avoidance implies avoiding activities that can produce risks on a large scale.
Reducing the time spent in dangerous areas is achieved by reducing routes, access control, speeding up transactions, etc.
The reduction in the amount of actual losses is ensured by activities to eliminate the consequences of risks.
Risk downscaling is diversification as the division of risk over time or stages.
RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF ECONOMIC SECURITY OF THE ENTERPRISE
Konovalov Alexander Alexandrovich
candidate economic sciences, docent
Rostov State
University of Economics (RINH),
Department of State,
municipal government
and economic security
Lepetikova Irina Yurievna,
PhD in Law, Associate Professor of the Department of State,
municipal management and economic security,
Rostov State Economic University (RINH)
ANNOTATION:
The article considers risk management as an element of the economic security of an organization. The technology of enterprise risk management is presented.
ABSTRACT:
The article discusses risk management as an element of economic security. The technology risk management organization.
Keywords: economic security, risk management, risk management technology.
key words: economic security, risk management technology.
Economic security is the state of any business entity (enterprise, organization), characterized by the presence of a stable income and other resources that allow maintaining the standard of living at the current moment and in the foreseeable future. It is a separate structural element of the work of an economic entity, aimed at protecting the totality of its assets and other systems of the organization's functioning.
The essence of economic security for a business structure is to ensure the state of the best use of its resources to prevent threats to business and create conditions for stable, efficient operation and profit.
The classification of dangers and threats depending on the sphere of their occurrence has become the most widespread in science. On this basis, internal and external threats and dangers in the work of economic entities are distinguished.
External dangers and threats arise outside the enterprise. Internal factors are associated with the economic activity of the enterprise, its personnel.
The main source of threats to economic security is the external environment.
We can formulate a list of specific threats emanating from the external environment:
- transformation legal regulation affecting the conditions economic activity(tax, property relations, contract law);
- hacking and destruction of information support for the operation of the enterprise - viruses, network attacks, etc.;
- use of means of unfair competition;
- negative transformations of the political situation;
- underdevelopment of market infrastructure;
- unauthorized access of competitors to confidential information constituting a trade secret;
- illegal actions of criminal structures;
- theft of material resources;
- fraud;
- damage to assets and fixed assets of the enterprise.
The range of threats to the economic security of the enterprise is very wide. To ensure security in all areas in practice is simply unrealistic. To optimize work in the field of protecting key assets and processes of an economic entity, it is necessary to determine the most vulnerable points of the enterprise, which are carriers of the most high level risk.
The existence of risks as an integral part of entrepreneurial activity has led to the need to develop specific methods and techniques for identifying them when making and implementing management decisions.
As you know, the development of any activity goes to standardization, especially in the field of security. Currently established and already long time standards are functioning - industrial security, information security, transport security, environmental safety. Standardization facilitates the practical application of theoretical knowledge, and economic security is primarily a practical discipline, institution or industry.
The main provisions for the standardization of economic security were started back in 2013 by employees of the Institute of Finance under the Government Russian Federation. In the same year they published the monograph "United state standards to ensure the economic security of economic entities of the Russian Federation”. At the present time, this is one of the only works in the field of economic security standardization. In this paper, a team of authors develops the idea that economic security is a comprehensive risk management solution.
The concept of risk management in recent times has become one of the most "popular" terms in Russian business life. In some cases, it is understood as the management of an enterprise in the context of a general economic crisis, in others, the management of a company on the eve of bankruptcy, while others associate the concept of anti-crisis management with the activities of anti-crisis managers in the framework of judicial bankruptcy procedures.
Businesses operate in various conditions competitive environment, having different internal environment, the level of production potential, staffing, etc. In this regard, each enterprise has risks that are directly inherent only to this company and associated with the specifics of production, technological, commercial, financial and other activities. It is important to identify them in a timely manner and determine the probability of occurrence, the time of occurrence, as well as possible damage.
The same risks may occur in various areas production and economic activities. Therefore, when managing risks, the main thing is to identify possible areas of risk in relation to the enterprise under study.
Most a prime example work in this area is the monograph "Unified State Standards for Ensuring the Economic Security of Economic Entities of the Russian Federation". It contains systematized types of enterprise risks. The risk analysis and management procedures are based on GOST R 51901.1-2002 "Risk Management", ISO 73:2009 Guidelines and transferred to the concept of risk management.
- direct economic security;
information security;
organization of information and analytical work on risk management;
and a physical security unit.
The purpose of the proposed concept is the integration of the economic security management system into the management system. This ensures that the information collected in the process of risk management will be investigated and the result of this work will become a report as a basis for making management decisions.
The standard allows:
Increase the likelihood of achieving the goals set by the organization;
Support the proactive management of the organization;
Improve the awareness of employees of the organization about the need to ensure security based on risk identification;
Improve the quality of risk identification and treatment;
Comply with relevant legal requirements, regulations, international standards;
Raise the level of general management of the organization;
Increase the confidence of interested parties (stakeholders);
Establish a sound basis for decision making and strategic planning;
Improve control over the implementation of the organization's activities;
Efficiently allocate and use resources to ensure the economic security of the organization;
Improve indicators of occupational safety and health of employees of the organization;
Set losses;
Improve staff training on issues of ensuring economic security in the workplace;
Increase the efficiency and cohesion of the organization's team.
The main areas of regulation of the standard are the following main processes:
| Type of | Process description |
| Analytical | analysis of the state of security (economic, information, personnel, psychological, physical) organization; |
| analysis of the state of management processes, risks of management and the system internal control organizations; | |
| managerial | formation of the concept and security policy (including economic as the most important) of organizations; |
| development of an algorithm for implementing the concept of security (including economic as the most important) business for large holding structures in general; | |
| Practical | monitoring of the developed risk management systems and ensuring the economic security of organizations; |
| organizing the implementation of economic security systems, as well as their modernization during the restructuring of organizations, providing consulting support in the process of project implementation; | |
| carrying out on the basis of standards, regulations and other normative documents classes in various areas and security technologies. |
Table No. 1 Scope of regulation of the EB Standard
Risk management is a set of methods, techniques and activities that allow, to a certain extent, to predict the onset of risks and make decisions on the impact on them.
The purpose of developing any risk management model is to ensure the successful functioning of the enterprise in the face of risk and uncertainty. This goal can be achieved by solving the following main tasks:
- identification of possible economic risks;
reducing financial losses associated with economic risks.
The risk management model is a sequence of actions that provides a reasonable combination of risks and benefits.
Figure 1. Risk management technology
Risk management technology - the basis of any risk management model - is unchanged and includes the following sequentially performed elements: risk identification (identification of sources and types of risk); assessment (measurement) of risks, analysis of factors and conditions affecting the likelihood of risk, the amount of losses and damages, as well as limiting (normative) levels of risks; choosing ways and identifying means to reduce and contain risks; situational control over risks, comparison with the permissible (normative) level of risks, taking measures to place risks, their adjustment taking into account the current situation; coverage of damages and liquidation of other negative consequences risk manifestations; accumulation and processing of retrospective information about risk situations and the consequences of the manifestation of risks, development of recommendations to take into account the experience gained in the future (Fig. 1).
Risk management is a specific area of economic activity that requires in-depth knowledge in the field of business analysis, methods for optimizing business decisions, insurance business, psychology, and much more. The main task of an entrepreneur in this area is to find a course of action that provides the optimal combination of risk and income for a given project, based on the fact that the more profitable the project, the higher the degree of risk during implementation.
The risk management process is a systematic work on risk analysis, development and adoption of appropriate measures to minimize it. This process can be divided into five stages: risk identification, risk assessment, selection of risk management techniques, implementation of selected techniques, assessment
So, risk management is a set of interrelated processes of preparation, adoption and organization of the implementation of management decisions that make up the risk management process. The ultimate goal of risk management in the context of economic security is to identify the most vulnerable aspects in the activities of the enterprise and leveling threats in this area.
Taking into account the main directions of development of economic security, it can be assumed that over the next 5-7 years there is a high probability of introducing the standard of economic security, which is mentioned in the monograph "Unified State Standards for Ensuring the Economic Security of Economic Entities of the Russian Federation". The likelihood of implementing the standard is indirectly confirmed by the active implementation of such large enterprises as PJSC "LUKOIL", JSC "Gazprom" software tools for calculating risks, compiling a risk tree and using risk management when concluding contractual relations.
BIBLIOGRAPHY:
- Ansoff, I. Strategic management./ I. Ansoff. M.: Almaz-press, 2013. - 230 p.
- Gradov, A.P. Strategy and tactics of anti-crisis management of the company./A.P. Gradov. – M.: Extra M media, 2013. – 280 p.
- Zabrodsky V., Kapustin N. Theoretical basis assessment of the economic security of the industry and the firm // Business-inform. 2013. No. 15 - 16. P. 35 - 37. Melnikov A. B. Economic security: textbook. allowance / A. B. Melnikov, G.V. Makhanko. - Krasnodar: KubGAU, 2015. - 171 p.
- Minaev G.A. Organization security. M.: Logos, University book, 2012. - 368 p.
- Shagalov S.V. Economic security of the enterprise. M.: Rior, 2014
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Introduction.
Decisions made under risk are those whose outcomes are not certain, but the probability of each outcome is known. Probability is defined as the degree of possibility of a given event and varies from 0 to 1. The sum of the probabilities of all alternatives must be equal to one. Under certainty, there is only one alternative.
The most desirable way to determine probability is objectivity. Probability is objective when it can be determined by mathematical methods or by statistical analysis of accumulated experience. An example of objective probability is, for example, that a coin comes up “tails” 50% of the time. Another example is the forecasting of the death rate of the population by life insurance companies. Since the entire population serves as a base for experiment (experience), insurance actuaries can high precision predict what percentage of people of a certain age will die in it. next, etc. years. From this data, they determine how much insurance premiums they need to receive in order to pay insurance claims and still make a profit.
In a real, dynamic economy, the future is always uncertain and unpredictable. This means that the entrepreneur takes the risk. The risk of not getting the intended results is especially evident in the generality of monetary and commodity relations, the competition of participants in economic turnover.
In the early days of the Industrial Revolution, Adam Smith found it necessary to include in profits something like an insurance premium to compensate for the risk that a person who invested in a business ventured. A. Smith, and other representatives of the classical school of economic theory, attributed the risk to the factors in the formation of part of the profit.
The purpose of entrepreneurship is to obtain maximum income with minimal capital expenditure in a competitive environment. The implementation of this goal requires a comparison of the size of the capital invested in production and trade activities with the financial results of this activity. In the implementation of any type of economic activity, there is objectively a danger (risk) of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.
Thus, risk is the probability of losses, losses, shortfalls in planned income, profit.
Factors affecting the economy and management decisions and the risks associated with this process can be conditionally divided into five main groups: political, legal, economic, social and technological.
Business in Russia is closely associated with risks, so the system of anti-risk measures is becoming an integral part of economic activity.
2. Risks, dangers, threats to the activity of an enterprise (firm)
The strategic plans of the enterprise are implemented in conditions of ambiguity in the course of real socio-economic processes. At the time of decision-making, it is almost impossible to obtain accurate and complete knowledge about the remote environment for the implementation of the enterprise strategy, about all existing or potentially emerging internal and external factors. All this is the essence of the expression of uncertainty as an objective form of existence of the world around us. This or that manifestation of uncertainty can delay the onset of planned events, change their content or quantitative assessment, or cause an undesirable development of events (UNS), both foreseen and unexpected. As a result, the intended goal, for the sake of which strategic decisions are made, will not be achieved. An important strategic goal of the enterprise is to achieve economic security.
The economic security of an enterprise (firm) is such a state of a given economic entity in which the vital components of the structure and activities of the enterprise are characterized by a high degree of protection from undesirable changes. To do this, the company should adhere to a strategy that provides a sufficient level and build-up of socio-economic potential, sustainable business development and readiness for possible undesirable changes in the sphere of its life.
The assessments of the safety and degree of risk that the subject has, i.e. his knowledge, obtained by him either independently on the basis of experience and intuition, or specially developed on the basis of a study of the situation, including with the help of specialists, determines his sense of security (danger). In turn, the feeling of security either encourages the subject to search for ways to improve security, achieve its acceptable level, or allows him to switch his activity and resources to other goals if the security assessments are high, i.e. the level of risk is high.
An applied analysis of the problems of economic security and risk associated with the activities of a particular enterprise should be carried out in the context of a general description of its functioning. The economic manager, being in the sphere of the fatal action of certain deviating factors, is forced to take risks, i.e. make decisions in conditions of incomplete information, “without accurate calculation”, hoping for luck, which requires a certain courage and determination from him. Risk is an inevitable part of any economic activity. However, in itself, the presence of risk accompanying the activities of a particular market entity is neither an advantage nor a disadvantage. Moreover, the absence of risk, i.e., the danger of the occurrence of events that are unpredictable and undesirable for the subject or the consequences of his actions, as a rule, ultimately harms the economy, undermines its dynamism and efficiency. Therefore, the existence of risk and the inevitable changes in its distribution are a constant and powerful factor in the development of the entrepreneurial sphere of the economy.
As for industrial enterprises, whose economic activity is mainly related to the production of products, they can successfully operate and develop only by avoiding excessively risky decisions. In particular, this applies to large industrial enterprises, since they involve thousands of workers, most of them risk-averse, in risky situations. Such enterprises are characterized by decisions and actions aimed at reducing risk. In this sense, they are fundamentally different from those economic structures whose economic activity is associated precisely with the use of high-risk situations (operations in the stock markets, speculation in securities, venture financing, etc.). P.).
The strategic plans of an enterprise are developed based on some fixed conditions, or at least on their more or less predictable development. Due to the fact that such assumptions are often violated, especially in the long term, there is always a chance not to achieve the intended goal, not to get the planned strategic result. The possibility of deviation from the goal of a strategic decision, i.e., the discrepancy between the actually obtained economic result and the one planned at the time of decision-making, is usually characterized using the category of “economic risk”. Note that this discrepancy is not necessarily for the worse; it is very possible that the result will exceed expectations. However, this is more the exception than the rule.
The possible negative consequences of strategic decisions made and implemented without taking into account risk can be very painful for the enterprise and business. For an enterprise developing its strategy, ignoring risk can manifest itself in various undesirable economic results. These include, for example, a decrease in stock prices (instead of the planned increase), a decrease in profits and a decrease in investment efficiency compared to the level planned without risk, inefficient expenditure of material, labor or financial resources, the formation of excess stocks of unsold products, and other types of lost profits. and economic losses.
Thus, the concept of acceptable risk, orienting the economic manager to a conscious, rational - as opposed to adventurous, irresponsible - attitude to risk, offers methodological recommendations that are important for business activity in the field of material production. First, risk is not a static characteristic, but a controlled parameter; its level can and, most importantly, must be influenced. Secondly, since such an impact can only be exerted on a “recognized” risk, it must be analyzed, i.e., identify and identify risk factors, evaluate the consequences of their manifestation, etc. Thirdly, in order to correctly take into account risk in the activities of a manufacturing enterprise, it is useful to distinguish between the “starting” level of risk, or the risk of conceiving the initial idea of a project (economic event) or strategy option, and the “final” level of risk, which has been assessed (for the chosen strategy of the enterprise, of the accepted version of the project, planned for the implementation of economic activities, etc.) after the necessary risk assessment procedures have been completed and a set of measures has been developed to mitigate or neutralize the consequences of the manifestation of risk factors.
Determining the acceptable value of the risk level is an independent task of a special study, and establishing a certain level as such is the prerogative of the enterprise management or, at least, a manager of a higher level than the risk analyst. In the practical economic activity of the enterprise, taking into account the concept of acceptable risk, it is recommended:
When making economic decisions, take into account the possibility of reducing the level of "starting" risk to an acceptable "final" level;
Identify potential situations and risk factors that may cause failure to achieve the set goals;
Assess the characteristics of possible damage associated with an undesirable development of events;
In advance, at the stage of preparation of economic decisions, plan and, if necessary, implement measures to reduce the risk to an acceptable level;
When making decisions, take into account the costs associated with a preliminary analysis and assessment of risk and the preparation of measures to achieve an acceptable “final” level of risk.
At a manufacturing enterprise, the concept of acceptable risk should be implemented in such an organization of the management process that the emerging risk factor does not come as a surprise to the manager and that unreasonable decisions do not have to be made in a hurry.
We will call the risk factors of the strategic decision of the enterprise the prerequisites that increase the likelihood or reality of the occurrence of events that, not included in the circle of planned ones, can potentially come true and in this case have a deviating effect on the implementation of the strategic plan (enterprise strategy). The result of the manifestation of the risk factor will be an undesirable development of events, the consequences of which will lead to a deviation from the set strategic goal of the enterprise, i.e. to damage. Such events include both those that could be foreseen, but it is impossible to accurately indicate the moment of occurrence, and those that could not be predicted.
Causes of risk (i.e., the causes of the implementation or occurrence of risk events) are objective or subjective actions or decisions that entail an undesirable development of further events that are unfavorable for the implementation of some enterprise strategy.
In order to judge the significance of a particular risk factor and the adequacy of the preventive measures taken, the risk must be expressed in comparable terms.
The risk level of the strategy (strategic plan) is taken as a general risk characteristic. Its value as a result of an appropriate special study is expressed by some indicator of the level of risk.
An indicator of the level of risk, or simply an indicator of the risk of a strategy, is the level of risk expressed according to a certain rule in a certain scale. As a risk indicator, for example, a weighted average estimate of the magnitude of damage over all possible chains of LDCs, etc. can be used. In strategic planning, quantitative risk assessments should be treated very carefully and not taken on a “stronger” scale than it was due from the very beginning.
It is advisable to shift the center of gravity of efforts when taking into account the risk of strategic decisions from building complex models to searching, systematizing and detailed description of risk factors and developing functional risk management methods. To maintain the economic security of a manufacturing enterprise in a transformational economy, it is necessary to take into account all types of risk factors
3. Sources and risk factors
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