Selection of units in the sample
Types of selective observation: -actually random -mechanical -typical
Proper random selection - each unit from the general population is selected at random.
Mechanical selection - a list is compiled in a certain order (alphabetical, from largest to smallest) and units are selected at a certain interval. Typical selection - the entire population is divided into typical groups, from which selection is carried out.
Sample selection methods: 1) non-repeated - each registered unit is not returned to the general population and cannot be re-examined in the future. 2) re-selection - each registered unit of the sample is again returned to the general population and can be re-selected in the future.
Grouping and grouping intervals. secondary grouping.
With a continuous change in a feature, the number of groups is determined by the values of the feature in the interval.
The interval is called The difference between the maximum and minimum values of a trait in each group. There are 3 types of intervals: 1) equal 2) unequal 3) specialized
Equal intervals are used in cases where the change in the attribute is uniform. Unequal intervals are used when there is an uneven change in the attribute in the lower and higher groups. Specialized intervals are used in cases where qualitatively different groups are distinguished. Secondary grouping is an operation to form new groups based on previous grouping.
Distribution ranks
The result of the summary and grouping of statistical materials yavl. Series of indicators characterizing the phenomenon under study - statistical series. Statistical series of distribution - an ordered distribution of units according to some attribute. Depending on the trait, there are attributive and variational distribution series. Attributive called. rows formed by qualitative features. Variational distribution series built on a quantitative basis. The variation series consists of 2 elements: variants and frequencies. Named options. individual values of the attribute that it takes in the variational series. Frequencies are numbers showing how often certain options occur in a distribution series.
There are discrete and interval variation series. A discrete series characterizes the distribution of population units according to a discrete, discontinuous feature. In the interval series, the value of the attribute takes on any quantitative values within certain intervals.
Sectional diagram.
The sectional chart is a relationship between the range of variation (), interquartile spread, defined as the difference between the upper () and lower () quartile and the median, which allows you to graphically represent the distribution of the population under study.
By lining up various section charts side by side, you can immediately get a visual idea of the relationship between central trends and the degree of dispersion. Quartiles represent the value of a feature that divides the ranged population into four equal parts. The lower quartile separates 25% of the population with the lowest values of the attribute, i.e. 25% of the population units will be less than the calculated value. The upper quartile separates 25% of the population with the highest values of the attribute, i.e. 25% of the population units will exceed the value. Thus, the interquartile spread accounts for 50% of the studied population. The middle quartile is the median. The considered indicators can be calculated for both interval and discrete variational series.
Matrix notation
Matrix notation OLS. Let us introduce the notation:
where is the observation vector of dependent variables; is the observation matrix of independent variables; is the number of observations; is the number of independent variables.
The regression model in matrix form can be written as . To determine, we minimize the sum of the squared deviations of the vector from the regression line.
Multicollinearity.
Multicollinearity (for multiple regression) - high correlation of the matrix of pairwise correlation coefficients of independent variables. The resulting regression parameters have large standard errors and checking their significance by Student's t-test does not make sense. Estimates of regression parameters are very sensitive to changes in the sample size and to the results of observations.
Assessment of the adequacy of the model.
For the practical use of regression models, their adequacy is of great importance, i.e. compliance with actual statistics. Analysis of the quality of the empirical pair and multiple linear regression equation begins with the construction of an empirical regression equation, which is the initial stage of econometric analysis. The first, built on a sample, regression equation is very rarely satisfactory for one or another characteristic. Therefore, the next most important assessment is to check the quality of the regression equation. In econometrics, a well-established scheme of such verification is adopted, which is carried out in the following areas:
checking the statistical significance of the coefficients of the regression equation
checking the overall quality of the regression equation
verification of data properties, the feasibility of which was assumed when evaluating the equation (checking the feasibility of the LSM prerequisites)
Checking the adequacy of the entire model, i.e. determination coefficient is carried out using the Fisher criterion. 
where is the variance referred to the regression (explained variance); – residual regression.
The rate of growth and growth.
The indicator of the intensity of changes in the level of the series, expressed in fractions of a unit called. growth rate, and as a percentage, the growth rate.
The growth factor shows how many times the comparative level is greater than the level with which the comparison is made. The growth rate is always a positive number.
A negative assessment of the rate of change in the level of the series per unit of time is given by indicators of the growth rate.
The growth rate shows how many percent the compared level is more or less than the level taken as the base.
The growth rate can be positive, negative and equal to zero, expressed as a percentage and fractions of a unit (growth rate)
The growth rate can be obtained from the growth rate, expressed as a percentage, by subtracting 100% from it.
The main indicators of a series of dynamics include:
1) Absolute growth () is defined as the difference between two levels of the dynamic series and shows how much this level of the series exceeds the level taken as the comparison base: a) basic b) chain where - absolute growth; – level of the compared period; – level of the base period; is the level of the immediately preceding period. 2) Acceleration () is the difference between the absolute change for a given period and the absolute change for the previous period of the same duration. This indicator is calculated by the formula: . The absolute acceleration indicator is used only in the chain version, but not in the basic one. A negative acceleration value indicates a slowdown in growth and an acceleration in the decline in the levels of the series. 3) The growth rate is the ratio of the compared level (later) to the level taken as the base of comparison (earlier). This indicator shows how many percent the compared level is in relation to the level taken as the base, or how many times the compared level is greater than the level taken as the base. The growth rate is calculated by the formulas: a) basic b) chain
4) The growth rate shows how many percent the level of a given period is more (or less) than the base level. The growth rate is calculated by the formulas: a) basic b) chain
Coarse intervals
Coarse intervals from quarterly to annual (total amount), allows you to get a more visual trend in the volume of sales. The meaning of the reception lies in the fact that the initial series of dynamics is transformed and replaced by another one, the indicators of which refer to longer periods of time. For example, a series containing data on quarterly sales of products can be converted to a series of annual data. The newly formed series can contain either absolute values for time intervals enlarged in duration (these values are obtained by simply summing the levels of the original series of absolute values), or average values. When the levels are summed up or when the averages over the enlarged intervals are identified, the deviations in the levels due to random causes are mutually canceled out, smoothed out, and the effect of the main factors in changing the levels is more clearly detected.
Alignment with LSM
To find unknown coefficients by the least squares method (LSM), one can compose a system of normal equations for the considered functions and solve them by determining the unknown coefficients , and . Consider an example of compiling a system of normal equations for a hyperbolic function. LSM minimizes the sum of squared deviations () of observed values from theoretical ones. Symbolically, this can be written as follows. where are the observed values of the time series; – theoretical values of the time series; – time references, for example, years; – the number of observed values of the time series; are unknown coefficients.
The study of seasonal phenomena
Under seasonal fluctuations is understood as a stable fluctuation of a series of dynamics, repeating at certain periods of time during the year. . After that, we determine the individual seasonality indices according to the formula. Then we find the average values of individual seasonality indices using the formula. where is the number of periods for which individual seasonality indices are calculated. Using the obtained average values of the seasonality indices, the initial series of dynamics is cleared from the seasonal component, obtaining a trend. The theoretical trend values are then determined from the above functions of time. The following model can be used to make a prediction
The concept of an index
The index is a relative value that characterizes the change in the levels of complex socio-economic indicators over time, space or in comparison with the plan. A complex indicator consists of directly incommensurable elements. Index indicators are calculated at the highest level of statistical generalization and are based on the results of summary and processing of statistical observation data. With their help, the following tasks are solved: - Characterization of the overall change in a complex economic indicator and its individual elements; - Measurement of the influence of factors on the overall dynamics of a complex indicator, including a characterization of the influence of a change in the structure of the phenomenon. The index is the result of comparing two indicators of the same name, therefore, when calculating them, they distinguish between the compared level, called the current or reporting level, and the level with which the comparison is made, called the base level.
Index classification
The classification of indices is shown in fig.
The indices of volume indicators include indices of the physical volume of production, the physical volume of trade, the physical volume of national income, etc. Indices of qualitative indicators include indices of prices, costs, labor productivity, etc. General indices characterize the change in the totality as a whole, for example, the gross output of the national economy in the reporting year compared to the previous one. Individual indices give a comparative description of the dynamics of individual elements of the aggregate, for example, the production of pig iron in two periods. Group indices do not characterize the dynamics of the entire population, but only part of it, for example, the index of gross output of the engineering industry. Aggregate and average of individual indicators are determined by the methodology of their calculation. If the base for comparing all levels of the phenomenon remains constant, the resulting index is called the base index, otherwise it is called the chain index.
Index relationship
Indices can be used to analyze the dynamics of socio-economic phenomena over a number of successive periods. In this case, to achieve comparability, they must be calculated according to a single scheme. Such a scheme for calculating indices for several time periods is called an index system.
The main stages of statistical observation. Forms, types and methods of statistical observation.
Statistical observation is a systematic scientifically based collection of data or information about socio-economic phenomena and processes.
The main stages of statistical observation: -preparation of observations; -determination of the purpose and object of observation
Development of a document for data collection - draw up a calendar work plan.
2. carrying out mass data collection (begins with the distribution of questionnaires, forms and ends after filling out, delivery).
3.preparation of data for automated processing (subject to arithmetic and logical control)
4. development of proposals for improving the stat. observations.
The classification of statistical observation can be carried out according to four criteria: form, coverage, time and method of taking into account factors.
Reporting is a form of statistical observation in which enterprises, within a certain period of time, submit the necessary data to the statistical authorities in the prescribed form, countersigned by persons responsible for the accuracy of the information reported.
According to the duration of the period, periodic and annual reporting can be distinguished. Periodic reporting is provided monthly, quarterly. Annual reporting is presented based on the results of work for the year. Reporting is also divided into external and internal. External reporting is established by state bodies, ministries and departments. Internal reporting is formed in accordance with the accounting policy of the enterprise, the development of which is mandatory in market conditions. Specially organized statistical observation is carried out in the form of censuses and all kinds of surveys.
Continuous observation covers all units of the population without exception (for example, a population census). Non-continuous is a statistical observation in which only a part of the studied population is subject to survey. This part can be chosen in different ways. Therefore, it is subdivided into varieties. The survey of the main array is the observation of a part of the largest units that prevail in the population under study (for example, price dynamics can be examined for the largest cities or markets).
Selective observation provides special methods for selecting and forming the studied part of the population. Monographic observation is a detailed description of individual units of observation in the statistical population. This observation is usually carried out in relation to typical units or characteristic types of phenomena (description of the budget of the family of a worker or unemployed). Continuous (current, constant) is called statistical observation, in which the establishment and examination of facts occurs as they occur (for example, traffic accidents) .Discontinuous is called statistical observation, in which the establishment and examination of facts is carried out intermittently, from time to time. One-time observation is carried out as the need arises for data collection, in the study of a specific phenomenon or process (for example, one-time registration of folk theaters).
Periodic is an observation that is carried out at certain intervals or periods of time. Direct accounting is a statistical observation in which the necessary information is obtained by counting, measuring and weighing units of the population.
Documentary accounting is a statistical observation in which all the necessary information is obtained on the basis of various documentation (for example, customer accounts, birth certificates, etc.). at the interviewee.
2.Methodological and organizational issues of statistical observation. The concept of selective observation.
The programmatic and methodological issues of statistical observation include: - establishing the purpose and objectives of observation - establishing the object and unit of observation - developing an observation program - choosing the type and method of observation
The purpose of statistical observation yavl. obtaining reliable information to identify patterns in the development of phenomena and processes. Stat object observation is a set of social phenomena and processes that are subject to observation. The unit of observation is the primary element of the object of statistical observation. The monitoring program is a list of indicators to be registered. Selective observation is the observation of a part of the units of the studied population with the aim of spreading the data to the entire population. Benefit: Saves time, labor and money. Requirement: sampling sufficiency of at least 10% of the general population.
The concept of statistical observation and the requirements for it. Forms, types and methods of statistical observation. Program-methodical and organizational support of statistical observation. Methods for verifying the reliability of statistical observation data.
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2. Statistical observation
Plan.
1. The concept of statistical observation and the requirements for it.
2. Forms, types and methods of statistical observation.
3. Program-methodical and organizational support of statistical observation.
4. Methods for verifying the reliability of statistical observation data.
2.1. The concept of statistical observation and the requirements for it.
Statistical observationis the first stage of statistical research and is a scientifically organized and, as a rule, systematic collection of initial data on socio-economic phenomena and processes. The main task of statistical observation is to obtain reliable information to identify patterns of development and processes.
The collected data must be reliable and objective, therefore statistical observation must be organized as a planned, massive and systematic.
Plannedness statistical observation means that it must be carried out on a scientific basis according to a pre-developed plan that covers all issues of methodology, organization, technology for collecting information, controlling its quality and reliability.
Mass characterstatistical observation means that it should cover a large number of cases characterizing the mass of population units.
SystematicStatistical observation is determined by the fact that it should not be carried out spontaneously from case to case, but systematically, either continuously or regularly, if possible at regular intervals.
Reliability Statistical observation data must correspond to the facts.
Stages of statistical observation:
1. Program and methodological preparation of the observation.
2. Organizational preparation for the observation.
3. Collection of statistical observation data.
4. Quality control of statistical observation data.
5. Development of conclusions and proposals for improving statistical observation.
Object of statistical observationlimited in space and time, a certain set of interrelated observation units, about which statistical information should be collected (a set of individuals the population of a particular region, country; persons employed in industry enterprises; physical units machines, machines, residential buildings; legal entities enterprises , farms, commercial banks, educational institutions).
Reporting unitit is the subject from which the data about the unit of observation comes.
When organizing statistical observation, it is necessary to resolve the issue of the place and time of this observation, including the choice of the season, the establishment of the period (period) of observation, and in some cases, the so-called critical moment.
Place of statistical observationthe place where data are recorded and statistical forms are completed.
Statistical observation timethe time to which the collected data refer, characterizing the object of observation in a state that best meets the goals and objectives of the study.
In some observations, in particular in censuses, it is necessary to establish the critical moment of observation.
Critical moment (date) of statistical observation -this is the moment at which information about the units of observation is recorded.
In practice, they usually strive to ensure that the process of registering information is not too far from the critical moment.
Period of statistical observationa calendar period of time during which the collection, verification of statistical data and their registration in statistical forms are carried out.
The period of statistical observation is determined by many factors, the most important of which are the following:
■ features of the object of observation (its size, state at one time or another, etc.);
■ the scope and complexity of the surveillance program;
■ type of observation by source of information;
■ Availability of personnel who can be involved in monitoring, their number and degree of qualification.
The observation period, as a rule, is indicated by indicating the date (sometimes the hour) of the beginning and end of the observation.
Statistical observation form -this is a specially divided sheet (sheets) with a list of program questions, free spaces for writing answers to them, as well as for writing ciphers (codes) of answers
Mandatory elements of the formstatistical observation
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Title part |
Address part |
|
Specify: ■ name of the statistical observation ■ monitoring body ■ by whom and when the form was approved, sometimes the number assigned to it in the general system of observation forms carried out by this statistical body |
Specify: ■ the exact address of the unit or aggregates of units observations ■ their subordination |
2.2. Forms, types and methods of statistical observation
There are three forms of statistical observation: reporting and specially organized observation, register.
1. Reporting - this is the main form of observation, with the help of which state statistical bodies receive information from enterprises and organizations in the form of reporting documents signed by persons responsible for the reliability of the information contained in them.
Reporting, as a form of observation, is characterized by the following features:
1. reporting forms are approved by the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation;
2. reporting is mandatory for all enterprises and organizations;
3. reporting documents have legal force, because signed by the head of the organization and the chief accountant;
4. Reporting data is based on primary accounting documents.
Reporting deadlines include:
daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, yearly.
According to the method of presenting information, reporting is divided into:
telegraph, teletype, postal.
For industrial enterprises, unified reporting forms have been approved:
N P-1 "Information on the production and shipment of goods and services" (monthly).
N P-2 "Information on investments" (quarterly).
N P-3 "Information on the financial condition of the organization" (monthly).
N P-4 "Information on the number, wages and movement of employees" (monthly).
For small businesses, there is an abbreviated form of reporting:
N PM "Information on the main indicators of the activity of a small enterprise" (quarterly).
2. Specially organized surveillanceis a collection of information organized by the statistical authorities either for the study of phenomena not covered by reporting, or for a deeper study of reporting data, their verification and clarification,conducted in the form of censuses and various kinds of surveys (to obtain data that are not in the reporting).
3. Registers - this is a form of continuous statistical observation of long-term processes that have a fixed beginning, stage of development and a fixed end; (a form of observation in which the facts of the state of individual units of the population are continuously recorded).
In statistical practice, a distinction is made between population registers and business registers.
Population register- a named and regularly updated list of the inhabitants of the country. The surveillance program is limited by common characteristics such as gender, date and place of birth, date of marriage (these data remain unchanged throughout the observation period) and marital status (variable). As a rule, registers store information only on those variable features, the change in the values of which is documented.
Register of enterprisesincludes all types of economic activity and contains the values of the main features for each unit of the observed object for a certain period or point in time.
Three registers have been developed in our country: industrial enterprises, construction sites and contractors. Their introduction into statistical practice has significantly increased the informational and analytical levels of statistics, and made it possible to solve a number of economic and statistical problems for which other forms of statistical observation are unsuitable. Currently, work is underway to create a single register for business units.
Statistical observations can be divided into groups according to the following criteria:
Types of statistical observation are classified according to three main features
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Statistical observation |
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By population coverage |
By time |
By source of information |
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|
continuous |
continuous (current) |
direct |
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|
discontinuous: |
discontinuous: |
documentary |
||
|
1. selective observation |
1. periodic |
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|
2. observation of the main array |
2. lump sum |
interview |
||
|
3. monographic |
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With total observationall units of the studied population are subjected to the survey
With poor observationthe survey covers only a part of the study population, selected in a certain order. According to the method of forming a separate part of the population, a non-continuous observation is divided into selective, observation of the main array, and monographic.
Selective call the observation of a part of the population units selected by random selection with a sufficient number of observations
Observation of the main arrayprovides that a part of the population units is subjected to the survey, which, according to the studied attribute, makes up the largest share in the entire population
Monographic observationcharacterized by a comprehensive examination of only individual parts of the population that have specific features that are of interest to the researcher
Depending on the timing of the observation can be discontinuous and continuous.
Continuous (current) surveillancecarried out by continuous recording of facts as they arise
Discontinuous observationis performed either regularly at certain intervals (periodic), or irregularly, once, as needed (one-time).
Depending on the source of information, direct observation, documentary observation and questioning are distinguished.
Direct observationis carried out by fixing the facts personally established by the registrars as a result of inspection, measurement or calculation of signs of the phenomenon under study
Documentary observationbased on the use of data from various documents as a source of information
Poll method based on receiving data in the form of responses from interviewees
Statistical observation can be obtained in various ways, the main of which are: forwarding, questionnaire, correspondent and self-registration.
Expeditionary way of observationconsists in the fact that a special person (registrar) is sent to each observation unit, who, in statistical forms, registers information about the observed phenomenon (population census).
With a questionnaire method of observationinterviewees are given or published in the periodical press special questionnaires, the completion of which is voluntary and, as a rule, anonymously.
With the correspondent method of observationThe statistical organization mails the survey forms to enterprises and instructions on how to complete them. After filling out the forms, they are sent back to the statistical organization.
When self-registrationthe examined person is handed the forms and explains the questions of filling it out. The examined person fills out the form independently. On the appointed day, the statistical worker visits the surveyed person, receives the form and checks the completeness and correctness of the answers.
The choice of the type and method of statistical observation depends on the characteristics and size of the studied population, the goals and objectives of observation, the technique of collecting and processing information, the time and timing of the results.
2.3. Program-methodical and organizational support of statistical observation.
Statistical observation is carried out according to a previously developed plan, which includes program, methodological and organizational issues.
Statistical observation plan
|
Program and methodological issues
|
Organizational matters ■ Development of organizational plans for statistical observation ■ Indication of supervisory authorities ■ Determining the location of the observation Establishing the time of observation ■ Implementation of trial observation in some cases ■ Recruitment, training and placement of personnel ■ Indication of the timing and procedure for receiving, handing over observation materials |
To program and methodological issues relate:
1. Establishment of goals and objectives of observation.The purpose of observation should be formulated clearly and precisely. Specific tasks of observation follow from the goal.
2. Definition of the object and unit of observation.
The object of observation is understood as a certain statistical set in which the studied phenomena and processes take place. The object of observation can be a set of individuals or legal entities, etc. It is necessary to establish the boundaries of the object of observation according to some characteristics (territory, industry). The unit of observation is a constituent element of the object, which is the carrier of features to be registered.
3. Development of an observation program.
Observation programis a list of questions, signs, to which reliable answers must be obtained in the process of observation. The content of the program is determined by the object and tasks of observation.
The following requirements apply to the monitoring program:
a) the program must contain essential features that directly characterize the phenomenon under study;
b) program questions must be clear, precise and unambiguous;
c) it is advisable to include control questions in the program, the answers to which allow you to clarify the correctness of the answers to other questions.
Program questions and answers to them are reflected in statistical forms, which may have a list or card system.
With the card system, each form card is intended for registration of one unit of observation and its characteristics.
With a list system, information about several units of observation is recorded in one form.
4. Choice of the type and method of observation.
In order to successfully conduct statistical observation, its organizational plan is being developed.
Organizational plan -a document that fixes the solution of the most important issues of preparing and conducting statistical observation, indicating the specific timing of the planned activities and the persons (organizations) responsible for their implementation
Positions of the organizational plan of statistical observation:
- Goals and objectives of monitoring
- The object of observation (its definition, description is given, distinctive features are indicated)
- Surveillance bodies that prepare and conduct surveillance and are responsible for this work
- Time and timing of observation
- Place of observation (this is the place where registration of the observed facts should be made and observation forms filled out)
- Organizational form, type and method of observation
- Preparatory work for observation, including training for observation
- Observation procedure
- The procedure for receiving and handing over observation materials
- The procedure for obtaining and submitting preliminary and final results of observation, etc.
Organizational issues of statistical observation include:
1. Establishing the place, time and timing of observation.
2. Determination of the circle of persons and organizations responsible for the monitoring.
3. Selection, training and instruction of personnel.
4. Establishment of deadlines for the submission of observation materials.
2.4. Methods for verifying the reliability of statistical observation data.
Requirements for statistical information.
- Reliability (accuracy) of data
- Data comparabilityensured by the unity of the timing of observation, its program, data recording methods.
Control over the reliability of statistical information is carried out at all stages of statistical observation from the acceptance of primary data to the release of summary reports.
Discrepancies between the results of observation and the true value of the magnitude of the observed phenomenon are calledobservation errors.
Depending on the causes of occurrence, there are
|
Error type |
Characteristic |
|
Registration errors |
deviations between the value of the indicator obtained in the course of statistical observation and its actual, actual value. This type of error can occur with continuous and non-continuous observations. Registration errors are divided into random and systematic, intentional and unintentional. |
|
Random registration errors |
it is the result of the action of various random. They can increase and underestimate the values of indicators, and with a sufficiently large number of observations, these errors can cancel each other out. With a sufficiently large number of observations, as a result of the operation of the law of large numbers, these errors more or less cancel each other out. |
|
Systematic registration errors |
occur for certain fixed reasons. They have the same tendency to either increase or decrease the value of indicators for each unit of observation, which ultimately leads to serious distortions in the overall results of statistical observation (during a social survey, rounding off the age of the population). |
|
Intentional registration errors |
arise as a result of deliberate, conscious distortion of facts. |
|
Unintentional registration errors |
are random and unintentional. |
|
Representativeness (representativeness) errors |
deviations of the value of the indicator of the surveyed population and its value in the original population. Characteristic for non-continuous observation, and, in particular, for selective observation. They arise as a result of differences in the individual characteristics of the units that fell into the sample population from the units that remained in the total population. The results obtained from sample observation cannot exactly match the results if the entire population is examined. |
|
Random representativeness errors |
arise if the selected population does not fully reproduce the entire population as a whole. The magnitude of the error can be estimated. |
|
Representativeness biases |
appear as a result of violation of the principles of selection of units from the initial population, which should be subjected to observation. The size of these errors, as a rule, cannot be quantified. |
Verification of the reliability, objectivity and accuracy of statistical observation data in practice can be implemented through control.
There are syntactic, logical and arithmetic methods of statistical data control.
With syntactic control checks the correctness of the structure of the document, the presence of the need for details and records provided for by the instruction; completeness of filling in the lines of the document and coverage of all units of observation.
With a logical control checks the correspondence of codes and names of signs, the presence of logical relationships between indicators.
With arithmetic control, the correctness of summing up the results contained in the observation form and various calculations is checked.
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Abstract on statistics
New Natalia Nesterova Humanitarian University
Faculty of Tourism and Hospitality
The growing interest in statistics is caused by the current stage of economic development in the country, the formation of market relations. This requires deep economic knowledge in the field of collection, processing and analysis of economic information.
For the statistical practice of Russia in recent years, the most important issue has been an adequate informational reflection of new socio-economic phenomena - the organization of obtaining and analyzing data characterizing the change in ownership and the privatization process, non-state employment and unemployment, new types of migration of citizens and support for emerging poor social groups and etc. In addition, in order to track the introduction of market relations and the emerging realities of a serious adjustment, they required a system of indicators, the collection and development of data in the traditional areas of statistical observation: taking into account the main results of industrial and agricultural production, domestic and foreign trade, the activities of social facilities, etc. d. At the same time, the urgent need to obtain adequate and unambiguous information is now systematically increasing.
Recently, approaches to the organization of statistical monitoring of socio-economic phenomena of life have not undergone significant changes.
Statistical observation acts as one of the main methods of statistics and as one of the most important stages of statistical research. The importance of this stage of the study is determined by the fact that the use of only objective and sufficiently complete information obtained as a result of statistical observation at subsequent stages of the study is able to provide scientifically based conclusions about the nature and patterns of development of the object under study.
To study socio-economic phenomena and processes of social life, one should first of all collect the necessary information about them - statistical data. Statistical data (information) is understood as a set of quantitative characteristics of socio-economic phenomena and processes obtained as a result of statistical observation, their processing or corresponding calculations.
Statistical information is necessary for both government authorities and private entrepreneurs. For example, data on the economic situation in the country, on the existing purchasing power of the population, its composition and size, the profitability of enterprises in various sectors of the national economy, the dynamics of unemployment, changes in price indices for certain goods are needed by public services to improve the system of taxation of enterprises and individuals, to make changes in customs and investment policy, development of measures for social protection of various segments of the population. The same information is also required by private entrepreneurs for planning and organizing production.
The main properties of statistical information are its mass character and stability. The first feature is related to the peculiarities of the subject of study of statistics as a science, and the second one says that once collected information remains unchanged and, therefore, has the ability to become obsolete. Therefore, the conclusions about the state and development of the phenomenon, made on the basis of the analysis of information obtained several years ago, may be incomplete and even incorrect.
An important part of any statistical study is statistical observation.
Statistical observation is a mass, systematic, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of social and economic life, which consists in registering selected features for each unit of the population.
An example of statistical observation is public opinion polls, which have become especially popular in Russia in recent years. Such observation is undertaken with the aim of revealing people's attitudes towards some issue of interest or controversial events. The study of public opinion forms the basis of the general system of market research and is an important part of it. Such observation requires interviewing a number of individuals according to a predetermined program.
Statistical observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic services of banks, stock exchanges, firms.
The process of statistical observation includes the following steps:
preparation of observation;
conducting mass data collection;
preparation of data for automated processing;
development of proposals for the improvement of statistical observation.
Any statistical observation requires careful, thoughtful preparation. The reliability and reliability of information, the timeliness of its receipt will largely depend on it.
The preparation of a statistical observation is a process that includes various types of work. First, it is necessary to solve methodological issues, the most important of which are the definition of the purpose and object of observation, the composition of signs to be registered; development of documents for data collection; the choice of the reporting unit and the unit to be observed, as well as the methods and means of obtaining data.
In addition to methodological issues, it is necessary to solve organizational problems, for example, to determine the composition of the monitoring bodies; select and train personnel for monitoring; draw up a calendar plan of work for the preparation, conduct and processing of observation materials; replicate documents for data collection.
Carrying out mass data collection includes work directly related to filling in statistical forms. It begins with the distribution of census sheets, questionnaires, forms, statistical reporting forms and ends with their delivery after filling in to the bodies conducting the observation.
The collected data at the stage of their preparation for automated processing are subject to arithmetic and logical control. Both of these controls are based on knowledge of the relationship between indicators and qualitative features. At the final stage of the observation, the reasons that led to the incorrect completion of statistical forms are analyzed, and proposals are developed to improve the observation. This is very important for organizing future surveys.
Obtaining information in the course of statistical observation requires a lot of financial and labor resources, as well as time.
Purpose of observation. Statistical observations most often pursue a practical goal - obtaining reliable information to identify patterns in the development of phenomena and processes. The task of observation predetermines its program and forms of organization. An unclear goal can lead to the fact that in the process of observation unnecessary data will be collected or, conversely, the information necessary for analysis will not be obtained.
Object and unit of observation. Reporting unit. When preparing an observation, in addition to the goal, it is necessary to determine exactly what exactly is to be examined, that is, to establish the object of observation.
The object of observation is understood as a certain statistical aggregate in which the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes occur. The object of observation can be a set of individuals (the population of a particular region, country; persons employed in enterprises of the industry), physical units (machines, cars, residential buildings), legal entities (enterprises, farms, commercial banks, educational institutions).
To determine the object of statistical observation, it is necessary to establish the boundaries of the studied population. To do this, you should specify the most important features that distinguish it from other similar objects. For example, before conducting a survey of the profitability of industrial enterprises, it is necessary to determine the forms of ownership, organizational and legal forms of enterprises, industries and regions to be monitored.
Any object of statistical observation consists of separate elements - units of observation.
In statistics, the unit of observation (the term "elementary unit" is used in foreign literature) is a constituent element of an object that is a carrier of features to be registered. For example, in demographic surveys, the unit of observation may be an individual, but it may also be a family; in budgetary surveys – family or household.
Statistical observation program. Every phenomenon has many different features. Collecting information on all grounds is impractical, and often impossible. Therefore, it is necessary to select those features that are essential, basic for characterizing the object, based on the purpose of the study. To determine the composition of the registered features, an observation program is developed.
The observation program is a list of signs (or issues) to be recorded in the observation process. The quality of the collected information largely depends on how well the program of statistical observation is developed.
To draw up a correct observation program, the researcher must clearly understand the tasks of examining a particular phenomenon or process, determine the composition of the methods used in the analysis, the necessary groupings, and already on the basis of this, identify those signs that can be determined during the work. Usually the program is expressed in the form of questions of the census (questionnaire) form.
Statistical research begins with the collection of statistical information characterizing the studied socio-economic phenomena and processes. This stage is called statistical observation.
Statistical observation- this is a mass, systematic, scientifically organized observation of socio-economic phenomena and processes, which consists in registering the necessary features for each unit of the studied population. For example, during the census, for each resident of the country, information about gender, age, marital status, education, etc. is recorded.
Statistical observation, as a rule, is massive. This is manifested in the fact that during the observation it is necessary to obtain data from the maximum possible number of studied units of the population. The mass coverage of the population makes it possible to obtain the most accurate data characterizing the socio-economic phenomenon under study, to identify the existing patterns and relationships.
The regularity of statistical observation lies in the fact that any study is carried out according to a predetermined plan, which includes a number of issues related to preparatory work, direct collection of the necessary information and processing of the data obtained.
The principle of scientific organization underlies any stage of statistical research and consists in the complex application of statistical methodology for collecting and processing data.
The main purpose of statistical observation is the collection of statistical information about socio-economic phenomena and processes in order to obtain general characteristics.
At the present stage in statistics, there are two main forms of statistical observation:
- - reporting;
- - specially organized statistical observation;
- - registers;
Reporting is a way of obtaining statistical information from legal entities. Reporting is a specially designed form that includes those features that are subject to registration. Forms of statistical reporting are developed and approved by the state statistics authorities of the Russian Federation. One of the forms of statistical reporting is presented in Appendix 1. Any legal entity that is a subject of the Russian economy is obliged to submit reports to the state statistics authorities at the place of its registration in accordance with the established reporting forms and within the established time limits.
During the formation of a market economy, a special place in the system of collecting statistical information began to be occupied by specially organized statistical observations which are carried out to obtain any data not contained in the reports provided or which are necessary to verify or clarify the data contained in the reports.
Special attention should be paid to such a type of specially organized observation as a census.
Census- these are specially carried out large-scale work to collect the necessary statistical information about the objects under study within the boundaries of an industry, region or country as a whole. So, for example, the population censuses were mentioned earlier, which are held approximately once every 10 years and are aimed at obtaining the necessary information about the country's population. Another example is the cattle censuses, which are conducted at the end of the calendar year and provide information on the number and structure of the cattle population from agricultural holdings. Statistics agencies also conduct censuses of perennial plantings, housing stock, construction in progress, etc.
In addition to censuses, specially organized observation also includes other one-time work to collect the necessary statistical information, in particular, in the framework of sociological or marketing research.
Register supervision is a constant monitoring of the state and development of the observed units, which consists in the initial placement and timely updating of information in the database being maintained. In the statistical practice of a number of countries, population registers are used, i.e. constantly updated lists of the country's residents indicating their main socio-demographic characteristics, as well as business registers containing information of an organizational, legal and economic nature.
By coverage of population units There are two types of observation: continuous and non-continuous.
At continuous observation all units of the studied population are subjected to the survey. At the same time, due to the action of a number of factors, an insignificant percentage of non-coverage of units of the studied population is possible. Population censuses can serve as an example of continuous observation.
At discontinuous observation only a part of the units of the studied population is subjected to the survey. In this case, the part covered by the observation is determined in advance, i.e. a failed continuous observation cannot be regarded as a non-continuous observation. It is customary to distinguish the following types of non-continuous statistical observation: selective, main array method, monographic survey.
Selective called an observation based on the principle of random selection of those units of the population under study that should be observed. Selective observation, with the right his organization and conduct, provides sufficiently reliable data to characterize the studied population as a whole. In many cases, it is quite possible to replace continuous accounting with them. This provides significant savings in the funds spent on the collection and processing of data.
Monographic survey is a detailed, in-depth study and description of individual units of the population, characteristic in any respect, as a rule, according to an extended program. A monographic study is carried out in order to identify existing or emerging trends in the development of a phenomenon, to identify available reserves, and to evaluate the results of economic experiments.
Main Array Method consists in the fact that the largest units are subjected to the survey, which, taken together, have a predominant share in the aggregate according to the main feature for this study. For example, in a number of industries, large and medium-sized enterprises account for the overwhelming volume of output, so the results of small enterprises in these industries are practically not reflected in the general statistical indicators.
By registration deadlines observation can be continuous (current) and discontinuous.
continuous called such observation, which is carried out constantly, and the registration of facts is carried out as they are accomplished. So, for example, registration of births, marriages, etc. is carried out. in registry offices.
Discontinuous observation is not carried out constantly, from time to time. In this case, discontinuous observation is of two types: periodic and one-time. Periodic is an observation that is repeated at regular, equal intervals of time. An example is the annual reporting to the state statistics authorities.
A one-time observation is such an observation that is carried out as needed, without observing strict periodicity, or is generally carried out once and is not repeated. Such an observation was the census of perennial plantations conducted in the last century.
By source of information Distinguish between direct observation, documentary observation and questioning.
direct called such an observation, in which the registrars themselves, by direct measurement, weighing or counting, establish the value of the attribute and, on this basis, make an entry in the observation form. In this way, an inventory of fixed assets in enterprises is carried out.
Documentary observation involves recording answers to the questions of the form on the basis of relevant documents. An example of such observation is the collection of data on the progress of university students on the basis of test and examination sheets, the completion of statistical reporting forms based on accounting data, etc.
Interview- this is an observation in which the answers to the questions of the form are recorded from the words of the respondent (respondent). In this way, population censuses and public opinion polls are conducted.
The statistics apply the following ways collection of information:
- - reporting,
- - forwarding,
- - self-calculation,
- - questionnaire,
- - Correspondent.
Essence reporting method consists, as noted above, in the mandatory submission by economic entities of statistical reports on their activities in the prescribed form and within the established time limits.
Expeditionary method observation consists in the fact that specially attracted and trained workers visit each observation unit and fill out the observation form themselves. In this way, information is collected during population censuses.
In the self-calculation method, the forms are filled in by the respondents themselves. The duty of the employees specially involved in obtaining information is to distribute the forms to the respondents, instruct them, collect the completed forms and check the correctness of their filling.
Questionnaire method-- this is the collection of statistical data using special questionnaires sent to a certain circle of people or published in the periodical press. As a rule, this method of obtaining information is also used by many large manufacturers of household appliances, furniture and other consumer goods when conducting sociological surveys. Questionnaires are enclosed in the packaging of the goods with a request to fill out and return to the manufacturer at the specified address. The SONY questionnaire is presented in Appendix 2.
Essence correspondent way observation lies in the fact that the statistical authorities agree with certain persons who undertake the obligation to monitor any phenomena, processes and, in setting deadlines, report the results of observations to the statistical authorities. In this way, the budgets of individual households are studied, the purpose of which is to obtain statistical information on incomes and expenditures of the population.
Statistical observation is a mass, systematic, scientifically organized observation of the phenomena of economic and social life. This observation can be carried out by state statistics bodies, research institutes, economic services of banks, stock exchanges, firms, etc.
The process of statistical observation includes the following steps:
preparation of observation;
conducting mass data collection;
preparation of data for automated processing;
· development to improve statistical observation.
The collected data must meet two basic requirements: reliability and comparability. Reliability- this is the correspondence of the data to what is actually there. All methodology, organization and technique of statistical observation (SN) should be aimed at providing reliable data.
In order for data on individual phenomena to be generalized, they must be comparable with each other, i.e. meet according to the same methodology and at the same time. In addition, there must be comparability with past studies so that one can understand how the phenomenon is changing.
Comparability is performed if the same definition of the unit of observation was used, the same method for registering primary characteristics and the method for calculating secondary characteristics, such as profitability, labor productivity, liquidity, etc.
An important condition for comparability is the preservation of the observation time and the period of time to which the recorded data relate. For example, the number of university students is determined on October 1 of the academic year, the scholarship fund - for six months, etc. It is generally recommended that the data correspond to at least one complete cycle of the process being studied, such as the academic year, business year, fiscal year, etc. If seasonality is strongly affected, data should be collected quarterly. The observation time is chosen so that the object is in the most stable state.
Statistical observation is subdivided to the views. We present these types in the following table:
Forms, types and methods of statistical observation.
According to the time of registration of facts, they distinguish continuous(current), periodic and lump sum. Continuous observation is carried out systematically, constantly, continuously, as phenomena occur. For example, births and deaths, marriages and divorces are registered in the registry office, production, attendance and absence of employees, settlements with debtors and creditors, cash payments are taken into account at enterprises. With periodic monitoring, registration is carried out at certain, usually equal, intervals of time. For example, taking into account the progress of students according to the examination session. A one-time observation is carried out once to solve a problem or repeated at indefinite intervals as needed, for example, a housing census, etc. The use of one or another type of observation depends on the specifics of the object under study. It happens that both current and one-time observation are used to study the same process. For example, consumption of the population is studied by state statistics according to current monitoring data (budget survey). At the same time, consumption is studied by many research teams based on one-time observations.
According to the coverage of population units, they distinguish continuous and discontinuous observation. With continuous observation, all units of the population, without exception, are subject to registration. It is used in the census. The development of a mixed economy has increased the number of objects of economic activity. This contributed to the expansion of the practice of non-continuous observation, which in turn is divided into a method main array, selective and monographic.
With the method main array the main array is subjected to examination - that part of the units that makes the greatest contribution to the phenomenon under study. The part of the population, about which it is known that it does not play a big role in the characteristics of the population, is excluded from observation, i.e. with this method, the largest units are selected and examined. The logic of the method is that large units can practically determine the statistical indicators of interest to us. Often the application of the main array method requires an established qualification - the value of the feature that limits the object of observation. For example, enterprises with 500 or more employees are surveyed.
At selective observation, a part of the units of the population selected in a certain order is subjected to examination, and the results are extended to the entire population. At the same time, information is obtained about the entire population, having studied only a part of it.
At monographic Observation describes in detail the individual units of the population for the purpose of their in-depth study, which cannot be as detailed during mass observation. The main attention is drawn to the qualitative aspects of the phenomenon. An example is ethnographic surveys, when the way of life of a family or several families is studied.
According to the source of information, observation is divided into direct, documented and interview. Direct observation is carried out by registering the units under study and their characteristics on the basis of direct examination, counting, weighing, instrument readings.
In documented observation, various documents of primary accounting of enterprises, institutions and organizations are used as sources of statistical information. Direct observation and documented are the most reliable in statistical observation. In a survey, data sources are information provided by the respondents themselves.
Preparation of statistical observation. To conduct a statistical observation, it is necessary to formulate its purpose and the main hypotheses that must be tested against the observation data. At this stage, it is determined an object and units observation, the observation program is developed and approved. The definition of the object of observation includes the definition units of observation, territory and observation time. The unit of observation is the phenomenon, the signs of which are subject to registration. The set of units of observation constitutes the object of observation.
The observation area covers all locations of observation units; its boundaries depend on the definition of the unit of observation.
The observation time is the time to which the collected data refers. The registration time for all units is the same. When studying objects, the number and characteristics of which are continuously changing, it is established critical date at which the information is being collected. In a census, the start and end times of data collection are usually set. When studying such a mobile object as the population, it is not enough to establish the time of observation. (On average, 3 people are born in our country and 3-4 people die). Therefore, the data is recorded at a certain point in time, called the critical point of observation. As a critical moment in the 1994 census, 0 a.m. from 13 to 14 February was taken.
The surveillance program includes features to be registered for each observation unit. Its content depends on the goals and objectives of the survey. The program must meet the following principles:
1) no information not related to this survey;
2) do not include in the monitoring program those questions that may seem suspicious to people and to which one can obviously expect inaccurate answers.
Questions should be logically connected, which allows you to control the correctness of the answers. Answer forms can be digital, alternative (yes or no), multi-choice, when the answer consists in choosing one or more options from a variety of proposed answers. Statistical observation tools are forms (forms, questionnaires, questionnaires) and instructions for filling them out.
Errors of statistical observation. No matter how carefully the observation tools are compiled, the performers are instructed, the observation material always needs to be controlled. First of all, the completeness of coverage of units of observation is checked. The data is checked against the lists, the completed questionnaires are recalculated. At the same time, the completeness of filling in each observation form - reporting forms, questionnaires, etc. is checked.
All observation errors can be called registration errors. They can be random and systematic. They come from the poll. Random errors do not have any directionality. These are typos, reservations, permutations of numbers when writing. When generalizing the mass material, they cancel each other out and cannot distort the values of the summary indicators and the results of the analysis.
Systematic errors have a certain direction. These errors are intentional (e.g. underestimating your income, rounding off your age). All errors of this type must be identified and corrected. Therefore, after checking the completeness of the data, their control is carried out - counting and logical.
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